Chapter 12: The Nightmare Scenario

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Chapter 12: The Nightmare Scenario

Louise and I watched on MSNBC as President Trump, on April 9, 2025, signed executive orders targeting two former officials who dared to defy him during his first term.

“I think he’s guilty of treason, if you want to know the truth,” Trump said as he signed an order stripping security clearances from Miles Taylor, the former Department of Homeland Security official who had written critically about the Trump administration under the pen name “Anonymous” in 2019.1

Next came an order targeting Christopher Krebs, whom Trump had fired by tweet in November 2020 when, as director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA, now gutted by Musk), Krebs had declared the 2020 election was “the most secure in American history” and refuted Trump’s claims of fraud. In an act of pure malice, in April 2025 Trump stripped Krebs of his access to the Global Entry system that lets people speed through Customs when entering the United States.2

But these orders went far beyond those two men. The presidential memoranda also suspended clearances for any individuals associated with them including employees at SentinelOne, the cybersecurity company where Krebs worked, and personnel at the University of Pennsylvania, where Taylor had served as a lecturer.3

As Trump called Krebs a “wise guy” and a “fraud,” Louise turned to me with the same look of dismay I’d seen on January 6th four years earlier.

“This is only the beginning, isn’t it?” she asked.

I nodded grimly. This wasn’t just about Trump settling scores: when vengeance drives policy, democracy doesn’t just weaken; it can die.

“I Am Your Retribution”

People often asked me on my radio show in the months leading up to November 2024: “What’s the worst-case scenario if Trump wins again?” That question is now, of course, moot. The worst-case scenario so many of us feared is unfolding in front of our eyes.

That sounds hyperbolic, I know. Americans have a hard time imagining that our system could fundamentally break. We’ve survived a Canadian/British invasion, a Civil War, two World Wars, the Republican Great Depression, and countless other crises with our constitutional framework intact. Surely, people say, we can survive one man.

But Trump isn’t just any man: he’s uniquely dangerous in American history. Unlike previous presidents who at least felt constrained by democratic norms, Trump—as we saw in Chapter 3—has built his entire identity on the performance of success rather than its substance. His presidency isn’t about governance but about maintaining the illusion of winning at all costs.

And as we explored in Chapter 2, Roy Cohn taught him that institutions exist not to serve the public but to be weaponized against enemies. Trump combines these lessons with a complete immunity to shame that makes traditional accountability impossible.

This is the pattern constitutional scholars like Kim Lane Scheppele have documented in countries where democracy has been destroyed by elected leaders who quickly became autocrats. “Modern autocracy comes through legal means,” explains Scheppele, who studied Hungary’s constitutional decline under Orbán. “Democratic institutions are hollowed out from within while maintaining a democratic façade.”4

Trump’s first term was just the dress rehearsal, a testing of boundaries, a probing of weaknesses. He was learning. His current term is now the main performance: systematic, strategic, and utterly transformational. Unlike other presidents who grew into the office, Trump—shaped by the Queens upbringing we examined in Chapter 1—sees governance solely through the lens of domination. He told us exactly what he planned to do. Now he’s doing it.

“In 2016, I declared I am your voice,” Trump thundered at CPAC in March 2023. “Today, I add: I am your warrior. I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution.”5

That wasn’t just campaign rhetoric. It was a mission statement from a man who, as we’ve established, views every relationship as transactional and every institution as a potential weapon. Now, in his second presidency, he has fewer constraints than ever before.

No More Adults in the Room

During Trump’s first term, his most dangerous impulses were usually thwarted by staff who quietly ignored orders, slow-walked directives, or even leaked plans to the press. We know this not from conspiracy theories or news reports but from the people who were there.

General Mark Milley, then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told associates after the 2020 election, “They may try, but they’re not going to fucking succeed” in using the military to stay in power.6 Chief of Staff John Kelly, Defense Secretary James Mattis, and others formed what anonymous officials called a “guardrail” around the president.

In his current term, those guardrails have been systematically dismantled, including the mass decapitation of senior levels of our military.

In April 2023, Trump’s inner circle helped draft a 920-page manifesto called “Project 2025,” published by the Heritage Foundation but crafted by dozens of former Trump officials. This document, billed as a “mandate for leadership,” provided a step-by-step plan for consolidating power and neutralizing opposition that Trump is now implementing.7

The endgame isn’t policy. It’s power: unchecked, unaccountable, and wielded for personal gain and vendetta.

The Department of Retribution

The Justice Department was the first institution Trump transformed during his current term.

He’d made no secret of his intentions: He repeatedly promised to use the DOJ against his enemies, calling for the prosecution of those who investigated him. “They should be prosecuted for what they’ve done,” he said of Special Counsel Jack Smith and Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis. “They’ve violated the Constitution. . . . they’re trying to interfere with an election.”8

Project 2025 called for removing independence from the Justice Department and placing it directly under presidential control.9 The goal? To institutionalize this corrupt vision. And, sure enough, in Trump’s second term the DOJ has been weaponized. We are seeing:

· Prosecutors who investigated Trump facing retaliatory investigations

· Witnesses who testified against Trump losing security clearances, as exemplified by the April 9, 2025, executive orders

· January 6th insurrectionists receiving pardons while peaceful protesters and students who write op-eds face federal charges

· Critics like Krebs and Taylor targeted for official punishment, with their colleagues and associates also penalized10

This isn’t speculation; it’s what’s happening right now. Trump’s April 9th executive orders targeting Krebs and Taylor were the opening salvos of a broader campaign that we can expect to last—and get progressively more aggressive—for his entire four years.11

The End of Free Elections

Trump’s most dangerous fixation isn’t on personal enemies: it’s on the electoral system itself.

After all, Trump’s greatest grievance isn’t that he lost in 2020. It’s that he was stopped from overturning the results. He promised that next time, he wouldn’t be. Now, in his current term, he’s making good on that promise.

The infrastructure for election subversion has been under construction for years. Since 2021, Republican state legislatures have passed dozens of laws restricting voting access, particularly in methods and communities that tend to vote Democratic. But more ominously, many of these laws also change who counts the votes, replacing independent election officials with partisan appointees willing to overturn results.12

In Trump’s current term

· Election rules are being rewritten to favor Republican voters and suppress Democratic ones.

· The DOJ’s Civil Rights Division has been neutered, eliminating federal protection for voting rights.

· State legislatures are being encouraged to override popular votes if they don’t like the results.

· Voter roll purges, gerrymandering, and ID restrictions have exploded, particularly in Republican-controlled swing states.

· Election officials who resist are being replaced with those willing to “find votes” when needed.

The Voting Rights Act—already weakened repeatedly by Republicans on the Supreme Court—is being further gutted through DOJ non-enforcement. Federal election observers are being pulled from problematic jurisdictions in former Confederate states. And the president’s bully pulpit constantly undermines faith in elections themselves.

As Trump himself said during his campaign: “The only way we’re going to lose this election is if the election is rigged.”13 That wasn’t just a prediction: it was a threat. Either he wins, or the system is corrupt. There is no room for legitimate defeat in Trump’s worldview.

And now that he’s won a second term, what’s to stop him from seeking a third? Or a fourth? The Twenty-Second Amendment limits presidents to two terms, but with courts increasingly packed with Trump appointees, a DOJ that serves his interests rather than the law, and a Republican Party that has abandoned principle for power, who will enforce this constitutional limit?

Already, Trump allies are floating trial balloons. “His first term was stolen by the Russia hoax and impeachment,” one prominent supporter recently argued on Fox News. “The Constitution should count from his first legitimate term—which is this one.”14 Others suggest that “national emergencies” might require “temporary postponement” of the 2028 election.

Once democratic guardrails are removed, they don’t easily return.

Red Caesar: A Dictator by Another Name

Trump’s authoritarian aspirations aren’t hidden: they’re increasingly celebrated by his intellectual vanguard.

A growing movement within conservative circles, from Claremont Institute scholars to Project 2025 planners, explicitly calls for a “Red Caesar”: an American strongman who rules through emergency powers, bypassing democratic constraints in the name of fighting what they see as cultural decay and internal enemies.

What makes Trump uniquely suited for this role is precisely what we explored in Chapter 1: his family dynamics shaped him to view the world entirely through hierarchies of dominance and submission. As we saw, Fred Trump taught his son that kindness was weakness and that the world was divided simply into “killers” and victims. This worldview—that all human relationships are zero-sum power struggles—is the perfect psychological foundation for an American Caesar.

The mansion in Queens where Trump was raised operated on a value system of acquisition, dominance, and zero-sum competition that stood in stark contrast to the social evolution happening in America during Trump’s formative years. While the civil rights movement, feminism, and counterculture were reshaping society toward greater equality and social justice, the Trump household remained frozen in time.

As clinical psychologist Mary Trump described in her book, which we explored in Chapter 1, her uncle Donald’s personality was formed in response to an “emotional desert”: his grandiosity, his need for constant validation, his inability to admit mistakes, and his casual cruelty all adaptive responses to a psychopathic father who viewed vulnerability as unforgivable weakness.

These childhood lessons have now found their most dangerous expression in his approach to governance, where cooperation is seen as weakness and institutions are viewed not as guardrails but as obstacles to be overcome or weapons to be wielded.

And they’re saying the quiet part out loud. JD Vance, now Trump’s vice president, has argued that a president should “seize power” from the bureaucracy and ignore court rulings that limit executive authority. He promotes the apocryphal story that President Andrew Jackson told Supreme Court Chief Justice John Marshall to enforce his own order with regard to the Trail of Tears and then ignored the ruling.15

Trump himself has embraced this rhetoric of emergency powers while ranting about supposedly existential threats. “We will root out the communists, the Marxists, the fascists, and the sickos that live like vermin in our country,” he declared in October 2023.16

When a leader compares his opponents to “vermin” who need to be “rooted out,” history leaves little doubt about what comes next. This language isn’t accidental: it’s deliberate signaling about who belongs in Trump’s America and who doesn’t. Who deserves protection and who deserves punishment.

Trump doesn’t need to declare himself a dictator. He simply needs to act like one as long as no one stops him.

The Hungary Model: How Democracy Dies While Life Goes On

In July 2022, CPAC met in Budapest, with Viktor Orbán receiving a standing ovation for declaring that if the GOP wanted real power they had to seize control of the media, the courts, and embark on institutional restructuring. This wasn’t coincidence; it was acknowledgment that Hungary had become the Republican template for America’s potential transformation.17

Having been there and reported from there, I can testify that what makes the Hungarian model so dangerous is how normal it feels to citizens living through it. As Scheppele explains, “The case of Hungary shows how autocrats can rig elections legally, using legislative majorities to change the law and neutralize the opposition at every turn.” Most critically, “it happened through paperwork” rather than violence.18

This is the “frog in boiling water” phenomenon where democracy dies incrementally while daily life continues. People still work, shop, watch sports, and post on social media. Each restriction seems minor until suddenly, they’re not. At first, only critics and targeted minorities feel the full weight of autocratic power, creating powerful incentives for self-^­censorship among the rest of the population.19

The steps Orbán followed have become America’s road map:

· Courts captured through systematic appointments

· Election rules reshaped to favor one party

· Media controlled through regulatory pressure

· Constitutional norms eroded systematically

· Society divided into permanent in-groups and out-groups20

As rights disappear, expectations shift. What once seemed outrageous becomes normal. The psychological accommodation happens gradually, with cognitive dissonance leading many to justify the new reality rather than resist it.21

This pattern is unfolding in America today, and, like in Hungary, it’s a transformation by paperwork, not violence; it’s happening while life appears normal. Until it doesn’t.

The Compliance Apparatus

Beyond individual retribution, Trump has created institutional mechanisms to enforce loyalty. The blueprint had already been tested in states like Florida, Texas, and in Hungary under Orbán.

· Universities now face funding cuts for teaching “anti-­American” ideas (defined as criticism of Trump or conservative orthodoxy).22

· Media companies face regulatory harassment, antitrust investigations, and they and their reporters and commentators are the victims of libel lawsuits.23

· Social media platforms have been given a choice: remove “anti-Trump” content or lose profitable Section 230 protections.

· Federal employees undergo “ideological vetting” with those deemed “woke” or “liberal” purged.

· Private companies face pressure to fire or blacklist Trump critics.

This system of enforced compliance doesn’t require new laws, just the selective enforcement of existing ones. In autocracies, regulatory agencies become weapons aimed at enemies and shields protecting allies.

· The IRS audits Trump critics while ignoring allies’ tax law violations.24

· The FCC targets networks like CNN and MSNBC with regulatory harassment while giving Fox News and right-wing media a free pass.25

· The SEC investigates companies that speak out against Trump’s policies while fast-tracking approvals for supporters.

· Even local police departments feel the pressure, with federal grants tied to their willingness to crack down on protests against Trump while the general right-wing tilt of police departments mean they often ignore violence by his supporters.

This targeted enforcement creates a society where the law no longer protects everyone equally; it protects those in favor and punishes those who aren’t.

The International Warning Signs

On the international front, the warning signs provoked by Trump’s embrace of fascist regimes around the world are already flashing red. NATO allies are voicing concerns about the future of the alliance. Ukraine’s government is desperately seeking assurances that American support will continue. Taiwan is accelerating its defense preparations as China watches developments in Washington.

These aren’t speculative scenarios; they’re the active, real-time responses of global actors to America’s democratic instability. In diplomatic channels and across international forums, frantic discussions are taking place right now about how to adapt to a “post-American global order.” Some countries are hedging their bets, strengthening ties with China and Russia as insurance against US withdrawal from the worldwide family of democratic nations.

Trump’s first term demonstrated his willingness to break with long-standing allies and embrace dictators. His current actions—praising Putin amid Russia’s ongoing war, questioning NATO’s relevance, and suggesting greater accommodation with authoritarian regimes—signal a continuation and acceleration of that approach.

Why It Matters

In a true democracy, to paraphrase Reagan, elections have consequences. When power changes hands, policy changes too. But what happens when the system is rigged so thoroughly that elections no longer meaningfully transfer power?

Consider what’s happening in America today:

· State legislatures, gerrymandered beyond accountability, are passing laws giving themselves more power over election administration.

· The Supreme Court has already ruled in favor of expanded state legislature authority over elections, with more cases pending.

· Voter ID laws, purges, and other restrictions are being implemented with increasing precision to target Democratic-leaning demographic groups.

· Media ecosystems continue to fragment, with Americans increasingly consuming entirely different sets of facts based on their political alignment.

· Corporate money in politics is reaching unprecedented levels, with policy outcomes increasingly aligned with donor preferences rather than public opinion.

These aren’t hypothetical future scenarios; they’re underway right now. The machinery of democracy isn’t destroyed overnight; it’s recalibrated day by day. You can still cast a ballot. You can still enter a voting booth. But the system itself is being restructured to ensure predictable outcomes.

This is how America could see its last genuinely democratic president, not through the abolition of elections, but through their transformation—­like in Russia—into ritualistic exercises that no longer determine who holds power.

For Americans who grew up in a stable democracy, this collapse probably seems unimaginable. But history teaches us that democracies don’t usually die through military coups or dramatic upheavals. They die through step-by-step legal erosion, with elected officials and their bureaucrats and judges dismantling checks and balances while maintaining a façade of legitimacy.

It happened in Hungary under Orbán, in Venezuela under Chávez, in Turkey under Erdoğan, in Russia under Putin. Each began with democratic elections. Each ended with rigged systems where opposition became functionally impossible.

And each happened to a population that couldn’t imagine losing their freedom until it was already gone.

According to Scheppele, the warning signs were clear in Hungary. “For a while, I thought, ‘This would never happen here,’ ” she explained in a 2022 interview. “The biggest mistake that I made was a failure of imagination.”26

Democracy doesn’t announce its departure with trumpets. It slips away in silence, one compromised institution at a time. And Trump—backed by billionaires, amplified by right-wing propaganda networks, funded by foreign oligarchs, and protected by a captured party—has both the means and the motive to make America the next democracy to fall to secure his own safety and wealth.

The endgame isn’t conservatism. It isn’t, in fact, policy at all. It’s a complete restructuring of American governance to ensure permanent rule by a single leader and party. It’s the potential end of the American experiment in regular and peaceful transfers of political power.

This isn’t about left versus right anymore. It’s about democracy versus authoritarianism. And if we don’t recognize this reality soon, Trump may not just be serving his second term: he could be laying the groundwork to become America’s last democratically elected president.