Looks very much like a complete meltdown is happening to trade, the whole supply chain, defense alliances, and now the Constitution. The last straw is it seems that the psychopathic Trump Administration is going to defy the courts. ALL of them.
Trump and the Republicans are committing suicide, but not before killing the rest of us.
People are afraid to leave the country. Our foreign friends are afraid to visit. I'd say that makes us Russia. Putin must be having a party every night---we know Trump is every weekend.
Congress should (but won't)pass laws preventing cheap buyouts during financial crises, as with inside trading. Both give advantages to the already rich predatory sharks in our already dangerous economic waters.
Why not just take their money in the form of a 91% tax bracket as we have previously seen? Even those in the R congress and senate can't be total 'bumblefucks'.
as horrific as this is to admit, I'm partly grateful for the timing. if trump crashes the dollar before he deploys the military against US citizens, republicans may find their missing spines and do their constitutional duty to oppose him now, while there's still a chance.
it's a sad commentary that we need an undeniable and painful financial catastrophe to break trump's grip on power, but that's where we are.
I’m glad you’re quoting Ray Dalio from meet the press yesterday not very many people are talking about it. He said that he is worried about a breakdown of the global monetary order… “The very value of money is at stake”
Nobody is reporting that El Salvador is one of the biggest crypto users in the world. Could that have something to do with Trump's interest in El Salvador in addition to their delight in severe punishment?
Good point Gloria. I don't understand crypto at all, other than it is some dude in his underwear sitting behind a keyboard that creates it. Trump's $Trump meme coin, his Sovereign Wealth fund, his trip to Ft Knox with Musk, and El Salvador have to be all connected.
As part of a $1.4 billion loan agreed with the International Monetary Fund in December, the government’s involvement with the digital Chivo wallet will be “gradually unwound.” At the end of January, on a vote of 55-2, El Salvador’s Legislative Assembly passed modifications to the Bitcoin law, eliminating the word “currency” but keeping it legal tender. The changes will take effect May 1, 90 days after the legislation appeared in the official newspaper.
“Bitcoin no longer has the strength of legal tender,” economist Rafael Lemus told AFP. “It should have always been that way, but the government tried to force it into existence, and it didn’t work.”
Users are now free to accept Bitcoin or not, but it cannot be used to pay taxes or state bills. President Nayib Bukele admitted that introducing Bitcoin as an official currency alongside the US dollar in September 2021—the world’s first such move—had been his government’s “most unpopular” measure, alongside stringent anti-gang security measures.
El Salvador still has 688 Bitcoin in reserve, worth an estimated $574 million, of which $287 million is profit.
On February 13, Bukele and Microstrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor discussed how Bitcoin adoption could be accelerated worldwide, with El Salvador’s National Bitcoin Office considering establishing nodes in each household. The aim was to boost public perception of how Bitcoin can work in daily settings.
“President Bukele continues to buy Bitcoin, we have a Bitcoin Office, we have the Bitcoin Law, Bitcoin can be used in El Salvador,” El Salvador’s ambassador to the US, Milena Mayorga, assured at a Bitcoin conference.” But, “it has not been an easy road.” A survey published by the Jesuit Central American University in January revealed 92% of Salvadorans had not used Bitcoin in 2024. Of the 8% who said they had done so, the average was only 14 times a year. Family remittances via digital wallets amounted to $7.22 million in December 2024, less than 1% of the total sent.
We will need to feel economic pain, to escape the death grip of fascism on our throat. Hitler and Mussolini both rose to power because of support from corporations. It is only when the corporate behemoths feel pain that they turn upon their Golem.
I have been studying ecology, consciously or not, since I was about 12 years old. I earned two college degrees in its study. Much of my professional life has been in forestry, science education, science and technical writing/editing, energy management and ecological protection and restoration. All you and many others have said about the human fascination with monetary accumulation and manipulation is demonstrated, in the contra, by ecological reality every second of every day.
Capitalism, especially corporate, casino, disaster capitalism, is modeled via Earth ecology through one gigantic vector -- parasitism. It exists across all realms of ecological reality, from viruses to certain bacteria and fungi, single-celled organisms, some invertebrates, and now, at least one vertebrate, Homo sapiens.
Parasitism is the ultimate zero-sum game - only one winner, all other players lose. A lot like modern sports that culminate in some World Series or another. With one huge caveat. Once any parasite devours its host, and no more hosts remain, the parasite must devour itself in order to stay alive -- the neutral-sum game, with just one player, Until and of course, the parasite dies -- the negative-sum game. The ecological condition for this outcome is -- extinction.
Simplified, in ecology, three major relationships exist among living beings -- parasitism, commensalism, and mutualism; zero-sum, neutral-sum, positive sum outcomes.
Capitalism, IMO, in any form, is extinction-producing parasitism. It eats and eats and eats, and defecates, defecates, defecates, leaving a trail of weaknesses, polluted outliers than cannot be easily re-used or recycled and most often contaminate many other vectors of use, a hugely diminished source and resource quantity and quality, creating constant breakdowns of contextually and intra-dependently related associations among biotic and physical keystones.
Capitalism is a purposefully instigated imbalance between entropy, uncertainty, chaos, synchronicity, creativity, accumulation, storage, resilience and rhythmic stability. Why? Because it is a trauma/drama response to pain and ensuing fear, quickly leading to paranoia. With this stochastic chaos being constantly interjected into an eons-old and very mature system of ecological checks and balances, capitalism is the ultimate long-shot bet against the come of DEATH.
An entire paradigm of economic gibberish has been created to sustain this hungry monster. Nine thousand ways to 'beat the system' of having to daily find your harmony amongst the myriad energies of physical and biotic life on Earth. It is absolutely the most terrifying aberration of what ecologists label 'opportunism.' In biology, opportunities have a number of behaviors that result in sustaining, even enjoying daily life. The early bird finds the worm. The most agile pronghorn evades the puma by leaping through the tall grasses. The grey whales use their bubbles to aggregate food into a small cylinder where it can easily be swooped into baleen.
But no one whale becomes the hedge fund manager. The CEO bull elk have to work just as hard as the yearlings and cows, and all have to stick together and share accordingly to survive. The only way for a bird to buy stock is to eat only as much as is needed, for one meal, and to move over at the water hole so another bird can give it cover, there and elsewhere. That way involves cooperative survival, information sharing (not patent protections), and another opportunity to do what birds do,;fly, perch, visit, sing, plan, rest, build homes, mate, nurture young and keep their territories healthy and as abundant as possible.
Sadly, we now have to allows TFG to crash the entire system. With it will go all or most of the major parasites destroying Earth. Earth is more important than any mega-yacht, mansion, Shelby Cobra, bevy of beautiful women, seat at the head of the walnut table, etc. etc. We have to survive this, not stop it, because we cannot control it either. It is a tapeworm so large it has more segments than we have bodies.
Mick, Gaia does not protection, Gaia will survive, she has through many epochs worse than this one, like the Permian extinction.
What want survive is man kind and unfortunately other mammalian species,From Gaia's perspective that isn't a loss. We are lice burrowing into her scalp, a parasite, and she is trying to get rid of us, first one virus and bacteria after another. She tried bacteria with the plaques but humans thwarted her found cures, like penicillin, so now she has grasped virus's and then again we fouled her but she found an ally in RFK Jr, Trump and worshipful MAGAts.
Gaia will do just fine with the narcissistic parasite known as human
All I can say is that you have been on point about everything you say, and everything I have also predicted about the future (but without the evidence that you so clearly & eloquently provide). There are lots of substacks & newsletters, but yours is always at the top of my list. Thank you for all that you do!
You are absolutely correct. These people don’t understand history or economics, this depression is at the doorstep and anything you mentioned could blow up the world economy. This is a Republican caused crisis with no end in sight. Just wait until Trump’s talks with Iran blow up and he launches a disastrous war since the carrier battle groups, B-2s and other aircraft are there and waiting.
• The Euro can "in part" move into a reserve currency status for the Western trading bloc. The currency has now been around for 25 years, and the mechanisms of management have been effective through several currency and debt crises. It is the second most traded currency in the world like the USD was to the GDP in 1933. A trigger would be if oil were priced in EUR instead of USD.
• The Chinese Yuan (CNY) is a wild card. Although the Chinese government has a full-on real estate crisis on its hands and demographics are not favorable going forward, there has been preparation for a resilience if conflict comes. For example, the Chinese have very quietly introduced the digital Yuan (E-CNY) over the past five years. Many of the massive Belt and Road investments have used the E-CNY in the payment and settlement cycles. This gives the country a bypass to SWIFT if moves are made to remove China from SWIFT. The Belt and Road initiative has 140 participating countries, all of which could join a E-CNY settlement system to bypass SWIFT.
Both of these movements do create a blinking red light on the Dollar's reserve currency dashboard. As noted by Ray Dalio in a summary of his book, skillful management of the situation is a must to avoid what he calls a situation worse than the 1930s.
Certainly chaos where Kaptain Kaos is in charge. A good time to move money out of the Dollar for sure.
Just came back from Europe, and life there is normal despite a hot war on the eastern flank. Of course, most countries are run by competent leaders. The EU is being run more like the middle-of-the-road German government, which is no surprise given who is in charge.
Nikolai Dmitriyevich Kondratiev was a Russian Soviet economist and proponent of the New Economic Policy (NEP) best known for the business cycle theory known as Kondratiev waves. Kondratiev became an early leading figure of Soviet economics and promoted the NEP's system of small private free market enterprises in the Soviet Union. Kondratiev's theory that Western capitalist economies have long term (50-to-60-year) cycles of boom followed by depression gained recognition inside and outside the Soviet Union. (Stalin shot him)
I think 80 years (3 generations) is more accurate. And yes, we are looking at war. Trump needs and wants a war. Nuttyyahoo is egging him to attack Iran. Likely with nuclear weapoons. WWII was my father's war, Vietnam was my generations war, this war will be Russia, China, North Korea and Iran against all. Where do India and Pakistan fit?
I heard about that. The version I heard wasa that the President agreed. There is no such thing as a tremporary American military occupation. Like Russia they come to stay
Wow I am familiar with all of those installations.. At Ft Sherman alone an Army regiment or brigade could deploy into city and country and overwhelm the paltry Guardia Nacional.
Panama did not have an army when I was there, just a national guard, it wore blue uniforms (policia) or green (ejercito)
It seems as if there should be some way to get around the problem of the failure of human memory and the eighty-year cycles which keep repeating automatically. I had an idea about this when I was young and idealistic, and I was just starting my family. I thought that the best way to stop such cycles was for each generation to become educated, especially about history and civics and political science. I had been told that I had been educated but that was untrue. I didn't know anything about any of that despite twelve years of schooling and a diploma. I had attended all the classes including civics and history classes but failed to really apply myself and pay attention. And some people in those days had only completed six or eight years of schooling. I thought that the answer must be to force every student to attend school and to pay attention and learn. However, there were already laws on the books of every state forcing school attendance and endless rules about behavior and attitudes and performance. So, why was I and so many others not actually educated? I seemed to be intelligent enough and I didn't get into trouble. Well, I guess we will never figure that out. I'm sure it couldn't be that the fact of compulsion and the presumption that everyone must learn if they attend are false notions and simplistic thinking. That couldn't be it. That would mean that compulsory attendance laws need to be eliminated. Oh no. That would be the end of the world. What was I thinking?
On a more positive note, the Governor of my state, NV, was caught on tape saying that the thousands of people who marched on April 5th, of which I was one, were paid to march and are stupid. He said f*** you to all of us. I am demanding that he resign and asking that a recall petition be started. If anyone could help with that, I would like to hear from you. I am unable to manage that sort of undertaking at this point. Taking down a Republican cult member governor would be a major accomplishment and a clear warning to others.
Here we go again Robert,Your obsession. The alternative to compulsory attendance laws are ignorance and illiteracy, and a perpetual over class of people that could deduct their children, Just like in our country up till the mid 19th Century.
My grandfather was the first in 4 generations that could read and write. So what do you propose as an alternative.
Silly me I have asked you this before, but you never answer.
I am not as smart as you are, obviously. Please provide your evidence that removing the legal requirement to attend school would result in greater ignorance and illiteracy than currently exists. Please recall that over 70 million people voted for Trump three times. No hurry. I've been waiting many years for such proof of that ludicrous and irrational statement, and I do not expect it anytime soon. I am 83 now, so I might live long enough if I exercise and eat right.
What evidence to you need other than prima facie and historical evidence. Until Horace Mann in the 19th Century most people were illiterate. I am a genetic genealogist have poured through census from 1850 to 1880 and one, there is a column for can read or write, and the number of vacant spaces is mind boggling
I already told you that my 5th Great grandfather died before he had the ability to tutor his younger sons, and they were illiterate and thus not able to do business, as were their sons and grandson, and their ancestor was an original settler, son of a wealthy London Merchant, a survivor of the Jamestown Massacre, a planter whose son patented 2,000 acres, Who was part of the posse that arrested Gov Harvey,and whose family was Virginia nobility, until my 5th great grandfather fell off a horse and died
And you don't get away with trying to turn the question around.
The burden is on you, You critique mandatory education, but you have no alternative other than illiteracy.
This is the hundredth time you have avoided the issue, because you have no alternative other than a bitch list.
Please provide your definition of education so that I know what you are talking about (without syllogisms or solipsism). Defining education in terms of some quantity or quality of schooling will not suffice. Talking about one amazing, wonderful, family of geniuses is not an adequate sample. Also, define indoctrination and explain how it differs from education. So far, you are receiving an "F". You need to study harder and put more thought into your assignments. I don't want to say you are indolent, but I do not see any evidence of initiative here. You are just not performing up to your potential.
You are a piece of work, Robert. You do have a degree in evasion and sophistry I will grant you that. You know damn well what I mean. You are against mandatory schooling, and that means you are against any form of public, that is tax payer education, which puts you in the same category as MAGAts.
It is not up to me to define Education, It is up to you to explain your alternative to mandatory education, You have none so you practice sophistry
Here is my definition of education:the process of receiving or giving systematic instruction, especially at a school or university
That is how one learns to read and write, that or being taught by the parents, or a tutor. Tutors are hired, for a parent to teach the child, means that one parent has to be able to devote time to the child, have the ability and knowledge to teach and that means that the other parent is able to be the sole provider.
Now answer the question Robert. What is your alternative. You don't answer, do you, you just ramble on and try to make me the subject.
You don't answer because you have no answer just a fucking bitch list, something happened to you in public school, too bad, my sympathies.
Now the problem is becoming clear. You have a definition for education which is completely erroneous and misguided. We cannot carry on a normal conversation because you have no idea what you are talking about. Here are some questions to ponder which may give you some clues. What is the proper curriculum for Erik, a boy who is 14, or for Erika, who is 11? Provide details and specifics. If a state law dictates that all children of certain ages must attend school, who decides what conditions are acceptable, what rules will apply in every school, what the minimal standards are for instruction and curricular materials, how rules will be enforced, and how students will be evaluated? Use a particular state as an example. Take Florida, for example. If the state has laws pertaining to schools, and the governor is the top dog in the state, how much power will DeSantis have over the process and the school climate? What conditions do you think DeSantis is likely to impose on teachers and students? What if you as a parent disagree with his dictates? Take your time in answering. I really do not care what you think.
The subtitle, "history warns us: every major economic crash has led to a world war. Trump’s corruption, debt, and tariffs may be lighting the fuse…" is what my partner, Ann, just read to me when she looked at this and said to read this Substack a few minutes ago.
I thought of two sayings about history, the obvious one is about what happens to those who don't learn from history. We can thank George Santayana's “The Life of Reason, or The Phases of Human Progress" for "those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
The other is from Shakespeare: "What's past is prologue," this is a quotation from his play The Tempest. Of course it now means that history sets the context for the present.
What this doesn't address is that it is possible that there are those in power who do understand this. When it comes to a depression, they don't care. Far more alarming, when it comes to war, they may actually want one. Trump who enjoys playing the wrestling villain, generally bullying all his enemies, and his macho posturing henchmen like Hegeseth and Homan, (and a few henchwomen) may actually want a war.
They have all these weapons. To them they may be toys they are itching to play with. It's not like when I drove across country for the first time before moving to Portland to visit before moving here from Massachusetts. This was in a fast sports car. At 5:00 AM with no cars on the highway I waited for a very wide woodsy divided median on a straight stretch so there wouldn't be a police car on the oposite side to clock my speed. Then I floored it. I got it up to 140 mph before the governor on the car wouldn't let me go any faster. It was scary and exhileratiing. Boys will be boys, right?
All I risked was a hefty speeding ticket and maybe one for reckless driving, not starting a war. (I may have gotten off with a warning because the many cops I've known like to have a chance to engage in a high speed chase and open up their giant engine police cars and see how fast they can go. I know some have done this in the wee hours of the morning because when I was a reserve cop myself we clocked a sheriff deputy at over 120mpg when we were running radar from a bridge over the expressway though town.)
What do I expect? I expect our Democratic elected representatives to bang the drum 24/7 the same way the Republicans did when they controlled little to nothing. And here's where they are now and here's where we are now.
Probably because the Democratic party is dominated by geezers (I'm 78 btw). Today liberalpatriot.com pointed out that the Dems could have stopped the budget resolution except that 3 members could not vote. Texas’s Sylvester Turner, aged 70, died; Arizona’s Raul Grijalva, aged 77, also died; New Jersey’s Donald Norcross, aged 66, is currently hospitalized. More evidence of Geezertocracy is Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi. That cost Dems the election, and we got a wannabe Hitler for president.
The problem is the culture with the DNC, One must earn credentials, demonstrate fealty to the leader, spend time in the tank,prove that you are reliable and won't scare or upset the donor class, and by the time you do all of that, and make the all important social connections inside the beltway, you are a geezer. I am older than you Tom and no way should I be near any lever of power. I spend too much time worrying about my health, my joints and pain.
I agree with what you said. However, the DNC is still the Sleepy Joe Party. Nobody has yet booted DINO Fetterman out of the party even though he votes straight MAGA and has lip prints on Trump's butt. Maybe all their walkers are in the shop getting repainted for Trump's obscene birthday march. Biden & Trump have proven that nobody should be POTUS probably past 72. That is the age when some of my pals started complaining about memory lapses. Wanna bet nobody on the Hill has a staffer drafting a bill?
Life as we know it.
Looks very much like a complete meltdown is happening to trade, the whole supply chain, defense alliances, and now the Constitution. The last straw is it seems that the psychopathic Trump Administration is going to defy the courts. ALL of them.
Trump and the Republicans are committing suicide, but not before killing the rest of us.
People are afraid to leave the country. Our foreign friends are afraid to visit. I'd say that makes us Russia. Putin must be having a party every night---we know Trump is every weekend.
Congress should (but won't)pass laws preventing cheap buyouts during financial crises, as with inside trading. Both give advantages to the already rich predatory sharks in our already dangerous economic waters.
Why not just take their money in the form of a 91% tax bracket as we have previously seen? Even those in the R congress and senate can't be total 'bumblefucks'.
Wanna bet? If they don’t start fighting this right now today, they really are dumblefucks!
If only we would learn from history.... Thank you for enlightening your readers on a daily basis. More people need to read your informative columns.
If that story about Carney is accurate, the war would be against Canada and its allies.
Trump disinformation? Russian psy ops?
https://www.malaymail.com/news/world/2025/04/11/qanon-targets-canadas-mark-carney-with-wild-conspiracy-theories-ahead-of-election/172580
gawd, the filth that flows beneath the surface of normality. Thanks for the link.
as horrific as this is to admit, I'm partly grateful for the timing. if trump crashes the dollar before he deploys the military against US citizens, republicans may find their missing spines and do their constitutional duty to oppose him now, while there's still a chance.
it's a sad commentary that we need an undeniable and painful financial catastrophe to break trump's grip on power, but that's where we are.
Check out Feathers of Hope. https://jerryweiss.substack.com/
IMHO the main reason is national security. 22 senate Republicans voted to support Ukraine. Dozens of Republican House members. Tjhey didn't sign up to join the axis of evil. E.G. https://bacon.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=262
Now 7 Republican senators have cosponsored the bill that will elimanate Trump tariff authority. See above.
I’m glad you’re quoting Ray Dalio from meet the press yesterday not very many people are talking about it. He said that he is worried about a breakdown of the global monetary order… “The very value of money is at stake”
Nobody is reporting that El Salvador is one of the biggest crypto users in the world. Could that have something to do with Trump's interest in El Salvador in addition to their delight in severe punishment?
Good point Gloria. I don't understand crypto at all, other than it is some dude in his underwear sitting behind a keyboard that creates it. Trump's $Trump meme coin, his Sovereign Wealth fund, his trip to Ft Knox with Musk, and El Salvador have to be all connected.
El Salvador’s heralded adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender appears to be undergoing a significant downgrade as businesses are no longer obliged to accept the cryptocurrency. https://gfmag.com/economics-policy-regulation/el-salvador-drops-bitcoin-legal-tender/
As part of a $1.4 billion loan agreed with the International Monetary Fund in December, the government’s involvement with the digital Chivo wallet will be “gradually unwound.” At the end of January, on a vote of 55-2, El Salvador’s Legislative Assembly passed modifications to the Bitcoin law, eliminating the word “currency” but keeping it legal tender. The changes will take effect May 1, 90 days after the legislation appeared in the official newspaper.
“Bitcoin no longer has the strength of legal tender,” economist Rafael Lemus told AFP. “It should have always been that way, but the government tried to force it into existence, and it didn’t work.”
Users are now free to accept Bitcoin or not, but it cannot be used to pay taxes or state bills. President Nayib Bukele admitted that introducing Bitcoin as an official currency alongside the US dollar in September 2021—the world’s first such move—had been his government’s “most unpopular” measure, alongside stringent anti-gang security measures.
El Salvador still has 688 Bitcoin in reserve, worth an estimated $574 million, of which $287 million is profit.
On February 13, Bukele and Microstrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor discussed how Bitcoin adoption could be accelerated worldwide, with El Salvador’s National Bitcoin Office considering establishing nodes in each household. The aim was to boost public perception of how Bitcoin can work in daily settings.
“President Bukele continues to buy Bitcoin, we have a Bitcoin Office, we have the Bitcoin Law, Bitcoin can be used in El Salvador,” El Salvador’s ambassador to the US, Milena Mayorga, assured at a Bitcoin conference.” But, “it has not been an easy road.” A survey published by the Jesuit Central American University in January revealed 92% of Salvadorans had not used Bitcoin in 2024. Of the 8% who said they had done so, the average was only 14 times a year. Family remittances via digital wallets amounted to $7.22 million in December 2024, less than 1% of the total sent.
Double thanks Daniel for this post.
We will need to feel economic pain, to escape the death grip of fascism on our throat. Hitler and Mussolini both rose to power because of support from corporations. It is only when the corporate behemoths feel pain that they turn upon their Golem.
A lot of the corporations that supported Trump are losing financially and in market share, portending doom. Although he alleges that he paused tariffs, at least 10% remain and as always he is easily caught in his lies. https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotognini/2025/04/03/the-10-biggest-billionaire-losers-of-the-tariff-war-so-far/
You can find Trump's donors here. https://www.opensecrets.org/newsletter/signup-form?gad_source=1&gbraid=0AAAAAB1mwfr91aCn9pXr6incGuaZO9pOw&gclid=CjwKCAjwwe2_BhBEEiwAM1I7seYTuBp8UP0_yDjRGzVZW53Uq3b2atNzkzUJSBnpPeBEutBoZpCZFxoC6jEQAvD_BwE
I keep sayin' we should contact Congressional Republicans to support the bill that would remove Trump's tariff authority. https://www.grassley.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/trade_review_act.pdf
We should contact Trump's adversely affected corporate donors, too.
Democrats might want to consider sharing the abundant evidence that Repugnicans aren’t “better on the economy” from time to time.
I have been studying ecology, consciously or not, since I was about 12 years old. I earned two college degrees in its study. Much of my professional life has been in forestry, science education, science and technical writing/editing, energy management and ecological protection and restoration. All you and many others have said about the human fascination with monetary accumulation and manipulation is demonstrated, in the contra, by ecological reality every second of every day.
Capitalism, especially corporate, casino, disaster capitalism, is modeled via Earth ecology through one gigantic vector -- parasitism. It exists across all realms of ecological reality, from viruses to certain bacteria and fungi, single-celled organisms, some invertebrates, and now, at least one vertebrate, Homo sapiens.
Parasitism is the ultimate zero-sum game - only one winner, all other players lose. A lot like modern sports that culminate in some World Series or another. With one huge caveat. Once any parasite devours its host, and no more hosts remain, the parasite must devour itself in order to stay alive -- the neutral-sum game, with just one player, Until and of course, the parasite dies -- the negative-sum game. The ecological condition for this outcome is -- extinction.
Simplified, in ecology, three major relationships exist among living beings -- parasitism, commensalism, and mutualism; zero-sum, neutral-sum, positive sum outcomes.
Capitalism, IMO, in any form, is extinction-producing parasitism. It eats and eats and eats, and defecates, defecates, defecates, leaving a trail of weaknesses, polluted outliers than cannot be easily re-used or recycled and most often contaminate many other vectors of use, a hugely diminished source and resource quantity and quality, creating constant breakdowns of contextually and intra-dependently related associations among biotic and physical keystones.
Capitalism is a purposefully instigated imbalance between entropy, uncertainty, chaos, synchronicity, creativity, accumulation, storage, resilience and rhythmic stability. Why? Because it is a trauma/drama response to pain and ensuing fear, quickly leading to paranoia. With this stochastic chaos being constantly interjected into an eons-old and very mature system of ecological checks and balances, capitalism is the ultimate long-shot bet against the come of DEATH.
An entire paradigm of economic gibberish has been created to sustain this hungry monster. Nine thousand ways to 'beat the system' of having to daily find your harmony amongst the myriad energies of physical and biotic life on Earth. It is absolutely the most terrifying aberration of what ecologists label 'opportunism.' In biology, opportunities have a number of behaviors that result in sustaining, even enjoying daily life. The early bird finds the worm. The most agile pronghorn evades the puma by leaping through the tall grasses. The grey whales use their bubbles to aggregate food into a small cylinder where it can easily be swooped into baleen.
But no one whale becomes the hedge fund manager. The CEO bull elk have to work just as hard as the yearlings and cows, and all have to stick together and share accordingly to survive. The only way for a bird to buy stock is to eat only as much as is needed, for one meal, and to move over at the water hole so another bird can give it cover, there and elsewhere. That way involves cooperative survival, information sharing (not patent protections), and another opportunity to do what birds do,;fly, perch, visit, sing, plan, rest, build homes, mate, nurture young and keep their territories healthy and as abundant as possible.
Sadly, we now have to allows TFG to crash the entire system. With it will go all or most of the major parasites destroying Earth. Earth is more important than any mega-yacht, mansion, Shelby Cobra, bevy of beautiful women, seat at the head of the walnut table, etc. etc. We have to survive this, not stop it, because we cannot control it either. It is a tapeworm so large it has more segments than we have bodies.
Mick, Gaia does not protection, Gaia will survive, she has through many epochs worse than this one, like the Permian extinction.
What want survive is man kind and unfortunately other mammalian species,From Gaia's perspective that isn't a loss. We are lice burrowing into her scalp, a parasite, and she is trying to get rid of us, first one virus and bacteria after another. She tried bacteria with the plaques but humans thwarted her found cures, like penicillin, so now she has grasped virus's and then again we fouled her but she found an ally in RFK Jr, Trump and worshipful MAGAts.
Gaia will do just fine with the narcissistic parasite known as human
Whelp, at least "The Great Orange Dope" will go down Hating everybody.
And, in the end, isn't that what America's really all about?
After all: The Hate you Emit is equal to the Hate you Omit.
Thank you for one in a series of spectacular pieces, Mr. Hartmann.
All I can say is that you have been on point about everything you say, and everything I have also predicted about the future (but without the evidence that you so clearly & eloquently provide). There are lots of substacks & newsletters, but yours is always at the top of my list. Thank you for all that you do!
Thom,
You are absolutely correct. These people don’t understand history or economics, this depression is at the doorstep and anything you mentioned could blow up the world economy. This is a Republican caused crisis with no end in sight. Just wait until Trump’s talks with Iran blow up and he launches a disastrous war since the carrier battle groups, B-2s and other aircraft are there and waiting.
God help us,
Steve Dundas
Thom--Great synthesis!
A couple of thoughts to add are:
• The Euro can "in part" move into a reserve currency status for the Western trading bloc. The currency has now been around for 25 years, and the mechanisms of management have been effective through several currency and debt crises. It is the second most traded currency in the world like the USD was to the GDP in 1933. A trigger would be if oil were priced in EUR instead of USD.
• The Chinese Yuan (CNY) is a wild card. Although the Chinese government has a full-on real estate crisis on its hands and demographics are not favorable going forward, there has been preparation for a resilience if conflict comes. For example, the Chinese have very quietly introduced the digital Yuan (E-CNY) over the past five years. Many of the massive Belt and Road investments have used the E-CNY in the payment and settlement cycles. This gives the country a bypass to SWIFT if moves are made to remove China from SWIFT. The Belt and Road initiative has 140 participating countries, all of which could join a E-CNY settlement system to bypass SWIFT.
Both of these movements do create a blinking red light on the Dollar's reserve currency dashboard. As noted by Ray Dalio in a summary of his book, skillful management of the situation is a must to avoid what he calls a situation worse than the 1930s.
An interview of Ray Dalio is at https://youtu.be/Topa3LKgolw?si=ZZ9ReLdQ0rGhQql5
More likely there would be chaos. We'd have to devalue the dollar. Trump policy is to cheapen it -- sometimes you regret what you wish (for).
In 1982, although the dollar supported the Mexican peso, it dropped from 6 to a dollar to 60 to a dollar in one day.
Certainly chaos where Kaptain Kaos is in charge. A good time to move money out of the Dollar for sure.
Just came back from Europe, and life there is normal despite a hot war on the eastern flank. Of course, most countries are run by competent leaders. The EU is being run more like the middle-of-the-road German government, which is no surprise given who is in charge.
Nikolai Dmitriyevich Kondratiev was a Russian Soviet economist and proponent of the New Economic Policy (NEP) best known for the business cycle theory known as Kondratiev waves. Kondratiev became an early leading figure of Soviet economics and promoted the NEP's system of small private free market enterprises in the Soviet Union. Kondratiev's theory that Western capitalist economies have long term (50-to-60-year) cycles of boom followed by depression gained recognition inside and outside the Soviet Union. (Stalin shot him)
I think 80 years (3 generations) is more accurate. And yes, we are looking at war. Trump needs and wants a war. Nuttyyahoo is egging him to attack Iran. Likely with nuclear weapoons. WWII was my father's war, Vietnam was my generations war, this war will be Russia, China, North Korea and Iran against all. Where do India and Pakistan fit?
Check this out. Camouflaged Invasion of Panama.
https://globalpost.com/stories/panamas-opposition-warns-of-us-camouflaged-invasion-after-canal-deal/?lh_aid=35942&lh_cid=bykt8mx34r&lh_em=apaalj%40gmail.com&di=88284fd1efff510b136146e496d74539
I heard about that. The version I heard wasa that the President agreed. There is no such thing as a tremporary American military occupation. Like Russia they come to stay
Wow I am familiar with all of those installations.. At Ft Sherman alone an Army regiment or brigade could deploy into city and country and overwhelm the paltry Guardia Nacional.
Panama did not have an army when I was there, just a national guard, it wore blue uniforms (policia) or green (ejercito)
It seems as if there should be some way to get around the problem of the failure of human memory and the eighty-year cycles which keep repeating automatically. I had an idea about this when I was young and idealistic, and I was just starting my family. I thought that the best way to stop such cycles was for each generation to become educated, especially about history and civics and political science. I had been told that I had been educated but that was untrue. I didn't know anything about any of that despite twelve years of schooling and a diploma. I had attended all the classes including civics and history classes but failed to really apply myself and pay attention. And some people in those days had only completed six or eight years of schooling. I thought that the answer must be to force every student to attend school and to pay attention and learn. However, there were already laws on the books of every state forcing school attendance and endless rules about behavior and attitudes and performance. So, why was I and so many others not actually educated? I seemed to be intelligent enough and I didn't get into trouble. Well, I guess we will never figure that out. I'm sure it couldn't be that the fact of compulsion and the presumption that everyone must learn if they attend are false notions and simplistic thinking. That couldn't be it. That would mean that compulsory attendance laws need to be eliminated. Oh no. That would be the end of the world. What was I thinking?
On a more positive note, the Governor of my state, NV, was caught on tape saying that the thousands of people who marched on April 5th, of which I was one, were paid to march and are stupid. He said f*** you to all of us. I am demanding that he resign and asking that a recall petition be started. If anyone could help with that, I would like to hear from you. I am unable to manage that sort of undertaking at this point. Taking down a Republican cult member governor would be a major accomplishment and a clear warning to others.
Here we go again Robert,Your obsession. The alternative to compulsory attendance laws are ignorance and illiteracy, and a perpetual over class of people that could deduct their children, Just like in our country up till the mid 19th Century.
My grandfather was the first in 4 generations that could read and write. So what do you propose as an alternative.
Silly me I have asked you this before, but you never answer.
An idea please, not some emortional rant.
I am not as smart as you are, obviously. Please provide your evidence that removing the legal requirement to attend school would result in greater ignorance and illiteracy than currently exists. Please recall that over 70 million people voted for Trump three times. No hurry. I've been waiting many years for such proof of that ludicrous and irrational statement, and I do not expect it anytime soon. I am 83 now, so I might live long enough if I exercise and eat right.
What evidence to you need other than prima facie and historical evidence. Until Horace Mann in the 19th Century most people were illiterate. I am a genetic genealogist have poured through census from 1850 to 1880 and one, there is a column for can read or write, and the number of vacant spaces is mind boggling
I already told you that my 5th Great grandfather died before he had the ability to tutor his younger sons, and they were illiterate and thus not able to do business, as were their sons and grandson, and their ancestor was an original settler, son of a wealthy London Merchant, a survivor of the Jamestown Massacre, a planter whose son patented 2,000 acres, Who was part of the posse that arrested Gov Harvey,and whose family was Virginia nobility, until my 5th great grandfather fell off a horse and died
And you don't get away with trying to turn the question around.
The burden is on you, You critique mandatory education, but you have no alternative other than illiteracy.
This is the hundredth time you have avoided the issue, because you have no alternative other than a bitch list.
Please provide your definition of education so that I know what you are talking about (without syllogisms or solipsism). Defining education in terms of some quantity or quality of schooling will not suffice. Talking about one amazing, wonderful, family of geniuses is not an adequate sample. Also, define indoctrination and explain how it differs from education. So far, you are receiving an "F". You need to study harder and put more thought into your assignments. I don't want to say you are indolent, but I do not see any evidence of initiative here. You are just not performing up to your potential.
You are a piece of work, Robert. You do have a degree in evasion and sophistry I will grant you that. You know damn well what I mean. You are against mandatory schooling, and that means you are against any form of public, that is tax payer education, which puts you in the same category as MAGAts.
It is not up to me to define Education, It is up to you to explain your alternative to mandatory education, You have none so you practice sophistry
Here is my definition of education:the process of receiving or giving systematic instruction, especially at a school or university
That is how one learns to read and write, that or being taught by the parents, or a tutor. Tutors are hired, for a parent to teach the child, means that one parent has to be able to devote time to the child, have the ability and knowledge to teach and that means that the other parent is able to be the sole provider.
Now answer the question Robert. What is your alternative. You don't answer, do you, you just ramble on and try to make me the subject.
You don't answer because you have no answer just a fucking bitch list, something happened to you in public school, too bad, my sympathies.
Now the problem is becoming clear. You have a definition for education which is completely erroneous and misguided. We cannot carry on a normal conversation because you have no idea what you are talking about. Here are some questions to ponder which may give you some clues. What is the proper curriculum for Erik, a boy who is 14, or for Erika, who is 11? Provide details and specifics. If a state law dictates that all children of certain ages must attend school, who decides what conditions are acceptable, what rules will apply in every school, what the minimal standards are for instruction and curricular materials, how rules will be enforced, and how students will be evaluated? Use a particular state as an example. Take Florida, for example. If the state has laws pertaining to schools, and the governor is the top dog in the state, how much power will DeSantis have over the process and the school climate? What conditions do you think DeSantis is likely to impose on teachers and students? What if you as a parent disagree with his dictates? Take your time in answering. I really do not care what you think.
The subtitle, "history warns us: every major economic crash has led to a world war. Trump’s corruption, debt, and tariffs may be lighting the fuse…" is what my partner, Ann, just read to me when she looked at this and said to read this Substack a few minutes ago.
I thought of two sayings about history, the obvious one is about what happens to those who don't learn from history. We can thank George Santayana's “The Life of Reason, or The Phases of Human Progress" for "those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
The other is from Shakespeare: "What's past is prologue," this is a quotation from his play The Tempest. Of course it now means that history sets the context for the present.
What this doesn't address is that it is possible that there are those in power who do understand this. When it comes to a depression, they don't care. Far more alarming, when it comes to war, they may actually want one. Trump who enjoys playing the wrestling villain, generally bullying all his enemies, and his macho posturing henchmen like Hegeseth and Homan, (and a few henchwomen) may actually want a war.
They have all these weapons. To them they may be toys they are itching to play with. It's not like when I drove across country for the first time before moving to Portland to visit before moving here from Massachusetts. This was in a fast sports car. At 5:00 AM with no cars on the highway I waited for a very wide woodsy divided median on a straight stretch so there wouldn't be a police car on the oposite side to clock my speed. Then I floored it. I got it up to 140 mph before the governor on the car wouldn't let me go any faster. It was scary and exhileratiing. Boys will be boys, right?
All I risked was a hefty speeding ticket and maybe one for reckless driving, not starting a war. (I may have gotten off with a warning because the many cops I've known like to have a chance to engage in a high speed chase and open up their giant engine police cars and see how fast they can go. I know some have done this in the wee hours of the morning because when I was a reserve cop myself we clocked a sheriff deputy at over 120mpg when we were running radar from a bridge over the expressway though town.)
It’s customary for a captain to go down with his ship. Not Krasnov, he’ll get in his dinghy and set sail for Moscow.
What do I expect? I expect our Democratic elected representatives to bang the drum 24/7 the same way the Republicans did when they controlled little to nothing. And here's where they are now and here's where we are now.
What and upset the donor class?
Let's ask ourselves -
WHERE ARE OUR ELECTED DEMOCRATIC REPRESENTATIVES AND WHY AREN'T THEY STANDING UP FOR US?
Probably because the Democratic party is dominated by geezers (I'm 78 btw). Today liberalpatriot.com pointed out that the Dems could have stopped the budget resolution except that 3 members could not vote. Texas’s Sylvester Turner, aged 70, died; Arizona’s Raul Grijalva, aged 77, also died; New Jersey’s Donald Norcross, aged 66, is currently hospitalized. More evidence of Geezertocracy is Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi. That cost Dems the election, and we got a wannabe Hitler for president.
The problem is the culture with the DNC, One must earn credentials, demonstrate fealty to the leader, spend time in the tank,prove that you are reliable and won't scare or upset the donor class, and by the time you do all of that, and make the all important social connections inside the beltway, you are a geezer. I am older than you Tom and no way should I be near any lever of power. I spend too much time worrying about my health, my joints and pain.
I agree with what you said. However, the DNC is still the Sleepy Joe Party. Nobody has yet booted DINO Fetterman out of the party even though he votes straight MAGA and has lip prints on Trump's butt. Maybe all their walkers are in the shop getting repainted for Trump's obscene birthday march. Biden & Trump have proven that nobody should be POTUS probably past 72. That is the age when some of my pals started complaining about memory lapses. Wanna bet nobody on the Hill has a staffer drafting a bill?
Might be worth recalling who it was that soundly defeated trump in 2020 - and why.
Indeed, the lesser of two evils. Can you ever recall voting FOR president rather that choosing who you though was not the worst candidate? I can't.
I totally agree, I have memory lapses as well. I find myself searching for a name or a noun, and that is a sign of Alzheimers.
Republicans control both Houses and the executive branch. What do you expect?
Complain to Republicans. Read Feathers of Hope.