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Jeffrey Hobbs's avatar

War is, more now than ever before, a type of economic stimulus. But it gives a boost to production and consumption in the short term, while destroying those same capacities in the long term. War ends when those long-term consequences start to kick in and the economy begins to collapse. This is one way that capitalism eats itself, and we all suffer for it.

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Gordon Berry's avatar

Hegseth's upcoming meeting looks like the most dangerous part of your list of facts.

Putting it all together, as you do, makes the future very scary.

I hope these reported events are less connected...

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William Farrar's avatar

Gordon, it looks to me like he is going to require them to pledge loyalty to him and Trump, and to fire those that won't.

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Robot Bender's avatar

I hope every one of them remembers their oath to the Constitution and refuses to submit.

Meanwhile, putting all of our senior military leadership in one place (announced in advance!) is beyond stupid and practically begs for an adversary to strike. 🤦

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William Farrar's avatar

Hegseth is a mindless Christian zealot.

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Robot Bender's avatar

Trust me, I know. I'm surrounded by them here.

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MaryPat's avatar

Read "Separation of Church and Hate" by John Fugelsang.

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MaryPat's avatar

I fear Hegseth is the opposite: a clever godless manipulator.

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William Farrar's avatar

No Mary Pat, he is a Christian, a true believer.

Christians are like lollipops they come in all flavors

There is enough in the Bible to appeal to everyone, by the way John Fugelsang's Separation of church and Hate was just released last week, are you sure that you have already received it, much less read it.

Anyway, the bible in the old and new testament justifies slavery, and even violence. Read Luke 19:27 and Luke 22:36, and 1 Timothy 2:12. 1 Corinthians 13:24, per the last two Mary Pat, you should not even be making comments on substack.

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MaryPat's avatar

Have my red (sinful) copy of Separation of Church and Hate in my lap as I write!

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MaryPat's avatar

I shalt not comment, but I can wash your feet.

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Rhonda L. S. Ovist's avatar

This is my biggest concern - and that adversary of those who don’t pledge loyalty could be our own government. This could both remove the risk of these military leaders of organizing the Removal of the President, a risk that remains even if they are fired or demoted, and it creates a very nice opportunity to blame the “leftist domestic terrorists” for any violence that may occur, providing an excuse for Marshall law (it would be every bit as flimsy as all the administrations other accusations against Trumps “enemies” but I don’t know if that matters should this scenario plays out)

But on the other hand, any effort to remove the leadership of the military would likely be the end of America’s superior military - the military leadership Hegseth has ordered to meet carry the institutional history and broadest expertise and experience with the US Military. Despite Hegseth’s apparent arrogance (equal only to what looks like enormous insecurity) I can’t believe he has a fraction of the knowledge and expertise to run the Department of Defense in peacetime, ever mind warfare. But so many of the people in the Presidents administration seem full of over confidence, they may not have a clue just how unprepared they are (not every situation can be dealt with via propaganda)

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Charles Duncan's avatar

That's my thought, too. Hitler executed the Night of the Long Knives a few weeks after obtaining the promise of support from the head of the German Army to help Hitler in squashing political enemies. Trump has in a way been following this pattern

by his insistence of personal loyalty from the key positions which "betrayed him" on January 6: Vice president, Joint Chief of staff and Attorney General. This observation and prediction has been posted for many months , and now the so-called chief

of the Department of War is attempting to ensure today's Wermacht will solidly support Trump's complete takeover of the country.

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William Farrar's avatar

Thanks for the recap, and fleshing the whole affair out. I am saddened that our intellectual "leaders" have their heads stuck in the sand, it is this caution, this cowardice that got us where we are, and no body in positions of influence have learned a damn thing..

The fascists have our hand around our throat and the Democratic leadership is playing an obsolete game,like the Problem Solvers Conference., and aligning with corporations against the likes of Mamdani and AOC.

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Daniel Solomon's avatar

Here in Baghdad By the Sea, erstwhile home of the Trump Presidential Library (and theme park), we expect a war with Venezuela.

So far we've shot and killed occupants of three (3) Venezuelan boats. We've offered a bounty on Maduro since Trump# 45. As of today, we have a significant naval and air presence in the Caribbean near Venezuela, ostensibly as part of an anti-drug trafficking and counter-cartel operation. Eight warships, a submarine, and fighter jets, has led to heightened tensions, with Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro accusing the U.S. of threatening regime change.

We've also withdrawn our ambassador from Colombia.

Roughly 250,000 dual Venezuela/US citizens want revenge stemming to Chavez. Many Cuban Americans also lobby for war with Cuba.

Typical Miami news: "On a December night last year in Caracas, opposition activist Jesús Armas stepped out of a café and walked toward his car. Before he could reach it, at least five hooded men dressed in black surrounded him. They asked only his name before forcing him into a gold SUV with no license plates. There was no warrant, no explanation, no indication of where he was being taken. For weeks, his family searched for him. Only later did they discover he had been transferred to El Helicoide, the notorious intelligence prison run by Venezuela’s feared Bolivarian National Intelligence Service."

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article312224076.html#storylink=cpy

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William Farrar's avatar

That too Daniel.

Amazing the power and influence of Exxon Mobil and the petro chemical cabal.

If Chavez had nationalized his oil, none of this would be happening. No Venezuelan caudillista's fleeing to America because they suddenly found themselves in the financial lower class.

That is all about Oil is evident from Trumps insane attack on Windmills and green energy.

Sane shit with Cuba, Fidel ran out the mafia, and the sugar producers exploting the people, and next thing he is forced to make friends with our enemies.

Venezuela is allied with Russia and Iran only out of self survival

Like Musk did with USAID we force underdeveloped and developing counties into the arms of dictatorships. One would almost think that was the master plan.

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MaryPat's avatar

Truly Terror-fying.

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alis's avatar

Did that Russian defect or did they "let" him defect?

Trump sold us out to Russia long before Putin. Bet the big psycho thought that made Vladimir his friend. What an idiot!

Is part of this because TRump told Zelensky he could get his WHOLE country back? What the hell was that?! Another set-up? Torture via a big fake-out for Urkraine and their President?

Do you get the feeling that TRump and Putin think we are merely toys for their enjoyment? That's what these kinds of psychopaths do while they keep score with the money they steal. TRump wrote it on the card: "The secret to having everything is believing you already do."

See you in the streets.

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William Farrar's avatar

Good question Alis, Beware of defectors, for they may be plants and double agents.

As regards any utterance by Trump, I don't believe him at any time, except when he says stuff like "I will have my retribution"

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Jon Notabot's avatar

"Did that Russian defect or did they "let" him defect?"

My first question exactly.

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Tomonthebeach's avatar

Hegseth is the last person I would choose to lead our military. He, like the rest of Trump's Clown-Car cabinet, is unqualified for his role. He is a failed mid-grade reserve officer with no combat experience. He reports to a fat old draft dodger who has stated on record that he cannot understand why anybody would enlist - they are all losers. Meanwhile, our careerist Congress does nothing but obey the dictates of an obviously demented president - so much for Article 25 - again.

Any intelligent legislator would dissolve this idiotic government and quickly replace it from the top down. At best, Trump is our Neville Chamberlain, who only knows how to cut deals with tyrants who use deals to weaken their foes before invasion. Do we even have a Winston Churchill in the wings? Maybe Illinois' governor? The entire Congress dithers and lets Trump operate as a fascist dictator. The GOP has squandered its control of the government, and has decided not to govern at all - just run for re-election and outlaw defenseless minorities.

So here we are in the mess Thom described with no clear path to stop the global insanity. It is as if we are all sitting in our comfy sofas watching the end of the world like clueless Eloi who act like they are watching it on TV or some video game.

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Carl Selfe's avatar

The October 18, 2025 protest is drawing nigh. I made a batch of 126 protest signs for you and your group. Please share, restack, copy and paste the link. Have a printing company do these for you! Here they are:

http://bit.ly/483Qrd4

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William Farrar's avatar

All of our Armed Forces around the world and in this country will be leaderless, D C and he surrounding area hotels will be overbooked.

The only reason I can figure out for calling in all generals and flag officers, is to have them swear an oath of loyalty to Trump, and to fire those that aren't craven careerists , Trump humpers and Dominionists. There is too little to no attention paid to Domininionism, aka Christian Reconstruction, aka https://www.sullivan-county.com/nf0/fundienazis/royal_race.htm aka

7 Mountains Mnndate, New Apostolic Reformation, People of Prayer.

It got i's hooks in the Pentagon first in Colorado Springs, when Mega Churches moved in to capture the Air Force Academny and has apparently spread like a virus, the Navy especially, eager to purge it's libary and curriculum of DEI, followed by West Point, even firing what they call DEI professors.

And Hegseth, quite obviously a Christian Reconstructionist and, with Deuz Vult tattooed on his arm and Crusader Cross on his chest, and remarkably I find virtually nothing said about this in the so called "lberal media" or on substack.

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MaryPat's avatar

"Deuz Vult" = "God's Will". I totally agree with you, William, on the purpose of Hegseth's gathering (coup?) of the US military leadership today, and that's before I knew about "the capture of the Air Force Academy" and the dearth of information from any media on what this all ultimately means for democracy. What democracy...

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docrhw Weil's avatar

Last year I went to Berlin and took trains through most of Poland and then buses across the Baltic states, ending with a ferry to Helsinki. It was easy to see that the military problem here (and really from France to the Urals) is that the entire area is dead flat. That's why over the centuries France, Germany, Poland and Russia would expand or contract depending on how strong their neighbors were.

Now given the horrific fighting across the eastern European plains in the world wars, and the lousy performance of his troops in the Ukraine, I kind of doubt that Putin will dare to expand the war on his own. After all, at best he would end up with ruined countries full of angry people ready to wage endless guerilla wars. But if he's desperate enough all bets could be off.

What worries me is if Trump does give him the green light, essentially repeating how Chamberlain justified his sellout at Munich to avoid, "A quarrel in a far away country, between people of whom we know nothing". Then in an echo of 1939 I could see the rest of NATO fighting to protect Poland, after which the wild card is the Russian use of tactical nukes to take out opposing forces. At that point we're in "Guns of August" territory, and if China uses the distraction to go after Taiwan we really are back to a version of 1941 again. Maybe this cartoon says it all:

https://biblioklept.org/2016/02/25/lousy-history-ron-cobb/

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William Farrar's avatar

The thing about nukes Doc. Any nukes that still function are "tactical". Tactical being the bomb that devastated Hiroshima, two equal halves of U-235, forced together by an explosion. https://www.blackgate.com/2019/04/16/the-golden-age-of-science-fiction-build-your-own-a-bomb-and-wake-up-the-neighborhood-by-george-w-harper/

The author worked for me back in the 1980's

Plutonium bombs, like the hydrogen bomb, require plutonium pits, hollow basket ball shaped balls, and with the end of the cold war, the production of plutonium pits was halted and we lost the engineering and technology,. The government had to contract with Lawrence Livermore Labs, to rediscover the technology

Plutonium pits degrade and have to be replaced.

I have my doubts that the Soviet era missiles in silo's or submarines,can fly, or if they fly do any damage, because the Soviet military (and it is still the Soviet Military) is corrupt and inefficient and maintenance funds were diverted by generals and admirals to personal use.

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Daniel Solomon's avatar

We used "dirty" weapons, "depleted uranium," in Afghanistan and Iraq that contained radioactive materials. I heard "Iraqui crud" hearings when medical evidence of radiation was presented.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28290930/

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William Farrar's avatar

i know two troops that worked for me, quit and went to work for Wakenhut, then transferred to CACI or Blackwater, they both died of brain cancer. By the way there were macho pretending ass holes.

Probablly from DU exposure.

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Michael Johnson's avatar

Great song for today.

Thom's warnings are indeed alarmist, and most unfortunately, usually spot on. NOT the way I hoped to kick off the weekend, but here we are. In general, some catastrophic event seems inevitable. Always holding out hope the utter stupidity and incompetence will bring them down, but if it does not, then it will lead to severe catastrophe - such as the scenarios spelled out in this post. Feels like we are constantly teetering on the edge of some great fall, and I'm frankly surprised a massive calamity has not already befallen us - in addition to the destruction of all our once trusted institutions and services, and the burning down of our democracy. At this moment, the future is anything but bright. The screw had better turn fast. As you say, the entire world is at risk.

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G.P. Baltimore's avatar

Thanks for the breakdown of our international situation and the new screen of smoke that is being propagated to get everyone talking about something other than the felon’s past sexual escapades with another now deceased criminal.

I was afraid that he’d somehow instigate a war in his first term to enable his permanency in the WH. But it’s getting more obvious that war is what the goal is, now.

So, now we have to not only deal with an out of control demented “leader”, but also Putin who is obviously in serious trouble, hopefully, with his own people. In the end they are the ones who need to stand up to this menace and get rid of him—much like us.

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Myron's avatar

Orange's crux of revenge on Ukraine for not investigating Biden, plus his refusal to arm Ukraine, encouraged Putin to make this land grab, probably for the natural resources of Ukraine as the objective. This is not going to stop until Ukraine gets more help from abroad.

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Daniel Solomon's avatar

Actually they investigated but the allegations brought by Manafort and his Russian clients, were bullshit. Trump was impeached for trying to intimidate Zelinsky.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_impeachment_of_Donald_Trump

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Clayton James Conway's avatar

Krasnov is well on his way of producing chaos in order to get away from headlines he does not like such as inflation etc... too numerous to name with a negative approval rating. Lame duck Drump administration will start wars without Congress as he does not hold them as necessary. Law be damned. Meanwhile the planet shifts to the 5D and war hawks are made to clean up the mess.

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Jon Notabot's avatar

I'll throw some speculative gasoline on the summoning of the military high brass:

Purging those who are not sufficiently loyal to Donald while simultaneously initiating a military invasion of Venezuela with the goal of creating Trumpistan - his very own non-extradition oil-rich country that Donald imagines he can escape to, as: the Epstein facts continue to roll out, or the economy fully burns to the ground. In this speculative fiction I see Trump taking a slice of our now divided military and its assets, as well as critical national intelligence for an "insurance policy".

It's all crazy imagineering - I know - but this administration is fucking nuts.

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alis's avatar

Notabot, not crazy.

An announcement of sorts said that Petey will be talking about the "warrior ethos" eyeball to eyeball with his officers. He's supposedly going for new PT standards, and this is just me, but I bet he's going for a new "look". These guys better show up slim and in shape. Don't think he is going to be looking into their eyes---I think he is going to be looking at their guts.

It's a big ego trip. They are also going to find out that we could have boots on the ground "to stop drug traffickers" in Venezuela soon. I hope that asshole leads one of the raids, and well, you know the rest.

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Jon Notabot's avatar

Ahh, of course.. Marketing. That's exactly what to expect from a Fox newz yammerer turned playacting SecDef.

Strong jawlines, snazzy haircuts and washboard abs. Just another storefront in Potemkin City.

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alis's avatar

Just watched Lev Parnas say that the talk will separate out folks that are not on-board with taking care of Antifa. Malcom Nance talked about how it would be an illegal order. He also said every spy agency on the planet is going to be gathering names, phone numbers, and listening in. Just too big to secure---it's very risky on so many levels.

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Jon Notabot's avatar

This is such an unnecessarily risky "meeting". You simply do not gather all of your strategic assets in one place. And you sure as hell don't advertise it ahead of time. And you never, ever do either of these things during peaks of global brinkmanship.

I do hope they find antifa - along with unicorns, dragons and principled conservatives.

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alis's avatar

Started laughing before I even got to the Republicans!

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Jon Notabot's avatar

Thanks for the breakdown, Thom.

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alis's avatar

Waking up to WWIII was not on my schedule, but thank goodness Thom is writing this history as it happens.

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Jon Notabot's avatar

Likewise.

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Sharol Hallanger's avatar

And we are still waiting for the Dems shadow government to show up. Instead, they are working across the aisle with fascists, trying to normalize the present state of affairs. The Dems are a worthless party, unwilling to stand up for the people to show the contrasts if they were in control. They continue to sabbotage progressive change. We are a rudderless country in the hands of reality television props for the oligarchs.

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Eva Seifert's avatar

Drunk-in-chief, Pete Hegseth is going to demand their allegiance and make them swear: “Ich schwöre bei Gott diesen heiligen Eid, daß ich dem Führer des United States Reiches und Volkes, Donald Trump, dem Oberbefehlshaber der Wehrmacht, unbedingten Gehorsam leisten und als tapferer Soldat bereit sein will, jederzeit für diesen Eid mein Leben einzusetzen.”

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Robert Herreshoff's avatar

Trump and Putin don't really care what happens to us, other than Putin's belief that an inherently weak populace of the West would not be willing to support a war and would push for rapid acquiescence to Putin's desires desires. Captain Bonespurs? He's so delusional that I'm not convinced he has a grasp of what a land war in Europe would actually mean. Whether or not he would honor our NATO commitments is unclear, which ultimately destabilizes the region. Putin may conceivably bet that El TACO Grande would fail in his treaty obligations and, in keeping with his true chickenshit nature, withdraw from any involvement in the conflict. Still, Putin isn't stupid enough to believe that he could win — in 3 years he has yet to defeat Ukraine, a country with a quarter Russia's population. I wonder if he is playing an altogether different game.

China would like nothing more than a non-nuclear war in the West, something that can't be guaranteed. I doubt that it would join Russia in what ultimately would be a moronic war. Were America to become involved in Europe it would afford China the ideal opportunity to easily invade Taiwan.

Then there' is the very real the specter of nuclear annihilation... Don't worry, the ecosphere would return to a semblance of a balanced environment in less than a million years. Frankly, there would be a collective sigh of relief — We haven't benefited the planet even a smidgeon over the last 10,000 years. We wouldn't be missed.

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