27 Comments
Aug 19, 2022Liked by Thom Hartmann

People have proposed many cycles of history and economics, some very short and others lasting for generations. It depends on what events and points one picks, though the large crises of (roughly) 1770, 1860 and 1930 do line up pretty well. Perhaps it is because new generations arise and don’t have direct experience with past events and solutions. Near the end of his life, my father, 1900-1990, who had several decades of experience on Wall Street, was upset about Reagan’s economic policies. One day he said, “Doesn’t anybody remember the Depression?” “No,” my mother replied, “Nobody is alive from then.” Harsh but often true of many things. If the lessons learned in the occupations of Germany and Japan had been used in the disasters of Iraq and Afghanistan maybe those would have gone a little better. But there was nobody left to ask, and the current people with “the answers” probably wouldn’t have listened anyway.

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Incredible look at our 80 year cycles. Thank you so much. If the Past is prologue I pray Democracy wins another time.

Thank you even more for beginning your recovery. Hope its an easy one. 🙏🏼

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Aug 19, 2022Liked by Thom Hartmann

Thom, glad you’re recovering! Take care. Also, always appreciate your books recommendations.

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Dear Professor Hartman; Get well soon. America needs you. Luigi

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Aug 20, 2022Liked by Thom Hartmann

8/20/22 Just wanted to get on here to wish you the best for a smooth recovery, Thom. I have an old back injury from an MVA in college (in Oregon!) and had a spinal infection in 2014 with laminectomy, causing scoliosis and a discectomy in 2020, now have intermittent facet joint pain as well as the adult-onset scoliosis. (age 73, still run--against hip surgeon's advice)

Can really relate to back pain! Had hip replacement last year caused by the scoliosis and asymmetrical pelvis (made the most calls for mayoral candidate while in post-surgery rehab!).

Not sure if you will receive any PT, but one idea is to subscribe to an amazing Canadian PT online run by a kinesiologist and an orthopedist and a great staff, Coach E and Dr. B, Precision Movement (www.precisionmovement.coach).

They have wonderful programs for which they charge one lifelong affordable subscription for all the musculoskeletal systems programs (hip, spine, shoulder), or you can just purchase one of the programs piecemeal.

Also they have a phone app called ROM Coach, a free and subscription version. They have a YouTube channel too.

The cannabis would be a much more effective pain reliever than OxyContin, ugh it makes you lethargic and jams up the GI tract. :(

P.S. Jefferson is doing a great job as "substitute teacher," he's very poetic!

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Aug 20, 2022Liked by Thom Hartmann

Sending healing thoughts.

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Dear Mr. Hartmann: Good luck with your health. I hope you feel well soon and get well soon. Thank you for your writing and journalism.

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A speedy recovery from your surgery, Thom ! And thanks for repeating this piece on the "The Fourth Turning." I got & read it shortly after you mentioned it. Only after the third reading did I realize that Strauss & Howe failed to state the really significant point of the 6 different "Fourth Turnings" that they took account of in their book: That each time the victor was the "egalitarian"--and not the authoritarian--side of the conflict...(even though they stressed that the outcome of each Fourth Turning is by no means guaranteed). As I wrote in a "Comment" some months ago, I have concluded that the universe is playing 4-5 dimensional chess with us humans while we are thoroughly convinced we're only playing checkers. I like what the Greeks said some 3,000 years ago: If you want to understand the (human) events of the world, first understand human nature. I have yet to unravel what all that means, but I am intrigued that the "Fourth Turning" always occurs when the "Prophet" generation--that's us, Thom, the "Boomers" this time around the circle / cycle--is in "Old Age" yet still very much running the show. This generation brings out the worst (Trump & Putin) as well as the best (Biden & Zelensky) in a world-wide conflict--or at least one that has worldwide ramifications (like our Revolutionary War did in establishing the first democracy on the planet in some 3,000 years--as you point out). The little bit I get so far is that the "egalitarian / democratic" side has won each of the past 6 times over the authoritarian / dictatorial side because our "egalitarian" side is like a sleeping giant that prefers to remain quiet & peacefully sleeping--like a hibernating grizzly?--but if disturbed & awakened in the midst of its peaceful slumber, it becomes agitated and rises to the occasion of subduing the offending intruders. I, too, am impressed how accurately Strauss & Howe predicted 25 year ago this next 4th Turning--likely, they said, to peak in 2025. How uncanny, eh? January 20, 2025 will be the inauguration of the next US President ! Will that person be a stalwart defender of democracy.....or the first full-fledged US authoritarian-dictator? And will the next "Hero" generation save us like the GI Joe's did during the last 4th Turning in World War II ? We'd best all join the fight for democracy....if we want that side to win again....yeh?

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Thom -

There's a remarkable book - Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069

by William Strauss, Neil Howe - that suggests that generations repeat some basic patterns over time, with 4 basic generational patterns - roughly once every 80 years. The book was published in 1992 and their model predicted that there would be a crisis just about now. It's propositional and not truly subject to disproof, but a fascinating read.

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The problem I have with the 80 year theory is that it ignores the takeover of our country by the neoliberals led by Ronald Reagan. That was an incredibly important Turning Point and doesn't work with the 80 year theory.

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First, my absolute best wishes to you for a full and complete recovery and relief from the misery of spinal or any pain.

This is one of those things like Kabbalah, Numerology where one can find endless meanings in predicting future events.

But why for example should the turnings begin with say 1776 and the American Revolution? Eighty years is 1856 NOT 1861. If we go four “turnings” a “ saeculum” say from 1856 we are in the midst of the Great Depression 1936. If we went from 1861, the beginning of the Civil War and went out the 80 year saeculum, we end up with the start of WWII. Yet the time between the two rather catastrophic events was a mere 5 years apart. World leaders, industrialists and thinkers of that time frame had lived through WWI - Hitler and Truman actually were in the horror of Trench Warfare, while FDR and Churchill held night Government offices.

How does Hitler a mere corporal end up as the catalyst for 65 million deaths world wide.

Exactly what “saeculum” was he leading and what “saeculum” was FDR leading?

You’re right that it is fun to consider this as a biological rhythm of the human race, but in reality it is no more valid then our fixation with “decades” as bookends for that seem to neatly encapsulate everything pop music to the color of appliances…

As the now hackneyed phrase goes, “A man never steps into the same river twice.” I would close by saying when you are in the river you are just going with the flow that a kid named Hitler living in a flop-house can change by getting denied entry to art academy and moving to Munich.

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Thom, Speedy recovery, and remember the doctors are guessing from how well you describe what you feel, but you feel it, and you aren't a dummy, so lean on your own common sense.

Great article, I'd like to propose another string for your guitar, because I think it's the link between many of the issues you cite.

ENERGY - I believe we are entering a new energy epoch, and are about to see the power of governments and corporations vanish. The replacement? Golly I'd be guessing, but something great is coming. I'll explain.

One of the forces that ended the dark ages was charcoal and coal, let's call them the first "industrial" heat sources. Humans could make steel with coal or charcoal. Steel quintupled productivity overnight, causing a centuries long economic boom.

Then came oil (and methane). Oil and methane provided the same energy as coal, at much lower cost, plus oil and methane are found nearly everywhere on earth.

Nuclear was supposed to replace oil, but coming in at such high cost that even with government forcing citizens to pay 99% of the cost, nuclear never has made economic sense.

Now, however, we have intermittent but very reliable fusion power and batteries capable of spreading energy use through dark periods, when the earth rotates and our fusion power plant shines on the other side.

I have a solar plant now. From owning it, there is no doubt that we are entering a new epoch where energy will become almost free. Mostly, the cost of building a new car is energy. I think we willl see money vanish and most things become essentially free, but what else will happen? I'm open to ideas...

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My theory---"turnings" have to do with born movers and shakers reaching a specific level of emotional maturity. They know what to say and how to be heard. Communication is the secret sauce. Eloquence has played a part: Jefferson, Lincoln, FDR, and Obama. These are people who have been able to define our potential and cheer us on, but the rest is brought about by those activists and movement members doing the hard work during the 80 year period.

FREEDOM. It's been about freeing ourselves from tyranny, slavery, fascism, and bias. They mean the work needs to commence to embrace and codify these steps forward so they benefit everyone, even the opposition.

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Keep getting better, Thom!

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Praying that your surgery went well

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Aug 20, 2022·edited Aug 20, 2022

cRaZy week, so I’m just now seeing this, but good to see that you’re recovering. Yes, we need you out here, but most importantly, your family and close friends need you! Please take time to do absolutely nothing! best wishes.

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