The US & our allies must push the UN to convene a new round of negotiations leading to solid and unambiguous treaties that will prevent rogue nations from invading nearby states they covet
One month before the 2020 elections, Oona Hathaway at justsecurity.org published a two-part summary of Trump’s disengagement with the democratically minded world as his neofascist, white-nationalist cadre of goons (my characterization) arbitrarily and systematically “withdrew from international agreements.” While our allies reacted in horror and our enemies rejoiced, Trump swaggered around the world stage confirming the worst instincts of authoritarian leaders, who totally played him, correctly diagnosing a pathetic wannabe who was green (well, orange) with envy of the kingly powers denied him under our system.
Volodymyr Zelensky is getting an object lesson about the West’s penchant (influenced heavily by the US) for weasel-word treaties. It’s no doubt not a shocking lesson, since everyone on the planet knows our own dishonorable history of breaking treaties with indigenous people on both American continents. Trump’s four years breaking the china in the shop is just more of the same throwback mentality of racism, xenophobia, and religious bigotry that has plagued humankind since the dawn of civilization.
Infamous world-class fools like Donald and Vladimir (See, we don't even have to use their last names.) will always rise to the top of inherently corrupt societies. Before the sands of time run out, Homo sapiens need to realign their priorities and disavow the rubric that wealth equals power. The first step is to hold out-of-control titans of finance and tyrants with armies accountable without collapsing the world economy into a new Dark Age or triggering a nuclear holocaust. Otherwise, there is no second step.
The media gave us a look at Putin's guards. Everyone of them is over a head taller than he is. He disappears in the middle of them. One of them, just one could put a stop to this.
Great history lesson about a simple agreement. But, we did not blow this agreement up (pardon the pun), Putin/Russia did. And let's face it these days, Putin IS Russia.
Bless President Zelenskyy, he has hung in there, while someone threatens to murder him and his family and they are murdering his nation. Heaven knows the man has not slept in a couple of weeks. I think it shows in what he is saying, because he should not focus on what allies are not doing, but what Putin is doing. A unified message from him going out to the Russians is more valuable than criticism of a "no-fly zone" we have already told him he is not going to get.
If he talks about the Budapest agreement, he should be talking privately to us and publicly about Putin breaking it.
The world and the UN has learned from this, and it's all about unity when facing a madman.
Each one could be his last, so I try to watch President Zelensky's daily videos as he rallies his nation and the world to fight back against Putin. You don't need to know the language to see his spirit shining through.
There has to be a way to thread the needle and provide air cover without NATO engaging Russians directly. Sure, it would be a dangerous logistical nightmare to supply heavy artillery and war planes to the Ukrainian defense forces (who would do the fighting, not us), but no more than the nightmare facing Russian generals on their side. Maybe the heavier armament can't reach the eastern and southern fronts in time, which may fall, but they could be in place to reinforce the western theatre, especially around Lviv to where Zelensky's government may have to retreat.
The bottom line: Ukraine -- and by extension, the world -- cannot allow overt fascism on such a scale ultimately to succeed. People have a right to defend themselves, and without escalating to nukes. Of course, Putin may not agree. That's the calculation and the risk.
The Polish government just threw something new into the fray, and the Pentagon is not happy about it. I don't get why the Ukrainian pilots could not get to the planes. But logistics aside, here is the position we are facing: anything and everything we do could be used as an excuse for Putin to claim it was an act of war.
When you go to sleep, don't be surprised what you wake-up to concerning Putin. The one thing people who are real experts on him and his mental illness have stated is that he is utterly unpredictable.
This is Putin saying my way or the highway, and sadly the highway is lined with nukes. NATO and the democracies have chosen to take a stand, but judging by Crimea and what was the existing protracted fight, our military expected Putin/Russia to take Ukraine. I'm guessing we thought he was all geared-up to do it quickly. So did Putin, but the lazy thieving bastard stole the money he could have used to prepare. Now he has to hire mercenaries to finish the job. All the Ukrainians are to him is an impediment to getting the job done and having what he wants.
Putin's unpredictability could be his undoing at home; whereas the solid predictability of a steady stream of conventional defensive weaponry entering Ukraine under UN authority for use by that nation's own capable military is the hard reality Putin should expect each morning he wakes up and commits atrocities and war crimes in direct violation of international law and human decency.
Drones with Hellfire missiles and artillery batteries with anti-aircraft and long-range surface-to-surface capability would effectively augment shoulder-fired projectiles in Ukraine's battle to defend her skies and prevent death from raining down on defenseless civilians. And they have their own seasoned pilots who could be trained to operate any allied aircraft lent to the effort.
There comes a point when the other kids on the block have to stand up to the bully. If Putin's plan is to commit suicide and take the world with him, he might just press the big red button over the devastating economic sanctions already imposed upon him and his cronies, which together threaten to destroy Russia quicker than pushing back on his humiliating military misadventure in another sovereign nation. Yet, he has not done so.
Sooner or later the West will have to call his bluff, or he'll keep raising the bet. The Sperm of Stalin is trying to reconstitute the old Russian empire; why would he stop at Ukraine?
This agreement has been violated by only one country, Russia. Russia is solely responsible for this war, and solely to blame for all the death, injuries, refugees, and economic damage to all the countries of the world. The world has stood up to Russia dramatically and in many areas, including economic, trade, diplomatic isolation, and increasing military aid to help Ukraine defend itself. These things are helping to deter Russian aggression! The agreement says we will seek UN Security Council action, which we have done! Who prevented it? Russia!
The pressure and even the suggestion that another country should join the war against Russia is frankly disastrous and just plain wrong. Ukraine's churlish insistence that the world is not doing enough to help them is counterproductive. Their unified resistance to the invasion is admirable, and they should continue in that course without conditions on the rest of the world because it is the heroic and patriotic thing to do. They are not finding Russia to save Europe; they are fighting Russia to save Ukraine!
I strongly believe that other countries or NATO entering the war against Russia will not benefit Ukraine, will only lead to a wider war, and will help Putin by convincing his citizens that he was right: their enemy was NATO all along!
I know 50-50 hindsight won't help Ukraine but can't help thinking that we could have supplied Ukraine defense forces under this agreement while Russia arranged their attack forces for months along the border.
Perhaps we should start referring to Putin as Stalin rather than Hitler. He's starving the Ukrainians that he won't allow out of the country and what western voices that got through to the Russian people would key their thinking to the enemy within.
Intelligence reports have surmised that Putin adulates and emulates Stalin and has a deep-set desire (delusion) to reconstitute the glory days of Russian imperialism and hegemony in the region. He sees that as Russia's destiny and his own place in history. In reality, he'll go down as just another megalomaniacal tyrant trying to be something more than a mass murderer and goddamn fool -- a small man with a small mind.
Another fantastic, on-target piece, Thom !! Thanks for reminding us about the Budapest Memorandum. Given that Putin has already violated items 1 & 2 of that accord by not respecting Ukraine's border nor refraining from attacking Ukraine, I agree with you that something more needs to be done by the other two signatorees of that 1994 agreement. You mentioned the
other day a possible no-man's land established by the West just inside Russia's border with Ukraine. Here's another option: 1) The USA & UK give Putin a 24-hour notice to remove all of its aircraft from Ukrainian air space---or be shot down. And 2) the USA & UK give Putin & his military 48 hours to announce & implement a total ceasefire of their forces inside & outside Ukraine--else all Russian & allied land & sea forces will be attacked & eliminated. Also, the USA & UK would directly communicate to Putin & his military--and also announce simultaneously to the rest of the world--that the USA & UK WILL NOT USE ANY NUCLEAR WEAPONS in this limited, peace-restoring operation inside Ukraine. This will be a limited military operation to restore Ukraine's security as promised in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum--and that's all. Would this be risking a nuclear WWIII ?? I think not doing so has the same risk because Putin is not going to stop until someone stops him--remember Syria & Chechnya !! I don't see why the Ukrainian people & government should suffer our lack of resolve to keep out commitments after they trusted us & gave up their nukes. As you reminded us today: What a lesson for other wannabe nuclear nations liked North Korea & Iran....eh? What kind of world do we want to live in going forward?
One month before the 2020 elections, Oona Hathaway at justsecurity.org published a two-part summary of Trump’s disengagement with the democratically minded world as his neofascist, white-nationalist cadre of goons (my characterization) arbitrarily and systematically “withdrew from international agreements.” While our allies reacted in horror and our enemies rejoiced, Trump swaggered around the world stage confirming the worst instincts of authoritarian leaders, who totally played him, correctly diagnosing a pathetic wannabe who was green (well, orange) with envy of the kingly powers denied him under our system.
These two articles complement today’s blog and are well worth the read. Part 1 recounts all the ways (too many to relist here) Trump acted in bad faith as he embarrassed and weakened the US internationally during his tenure as “leader of the free world” (face palm); Part 2 suggests ways to reverse the damage once Biden assumed office: https://www.justsecurity.org/72656/reengaging-on-treaties-and-other-international-agreements-part-i-president-donald-trumps-rejection-of-international-law/ ... https://www.justsecurity.org/72690/reengaging-on-treaties-and-other-international-agreements-part-ii-a-path-forward/
Volodymyr Zelensky is getting an object lesson about the West’s penchant (influenced heavily by the US) for weasel-word treaties. It’s no doubt not a shocking lesson, since everyone on the planet knows our own dishonorable history of breaking treaties with indigenous people on both American continents. Trump’s four years breaking the china in the shop is just more of the same throwback mentality of racism, xenophobia, and religious bigotry that has plagued humankind since the dawn of civilization.
Infamous world-class fools like Donald and Vladimir (See, we don't even have to use their last names.) will always rise to the top of inherently corrupt societies. Before the sands of time run out, Homo sapiens need to realign their priorities and disavow the rubric that wealth equals power. The first step is to hold out-of-control titans of finance and tyrants with armies accountable without collapsing the world economy into a new Dark Age or triggering a nuclear holocaust. Otherwise, there is no second step.
Where are the double aught spies when we need them?
The media gave us a look at Putin's guards. Everyone of them is over a head taller than he is. He disappears in the middle of them. One of them, just one could put a stop to this.
"Logic clearly dictates that the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.”
Da
Great history lesson about a simple agreement. But, we did not blow this agreement up (pardon the pun), Putin/Russia did. And let's face it these days, Putin IS Russia.
Bless President Zelenskyy, he has hung in there, while someone threatens to murder him and his family and they are murdering his nation. Heaven knows the man has not slept in a couple of weeks. I think it shows in what he is saying, because he should not focus on what allies are not doing, but what Putin is doing. A unified message from him going out to the Russians is more valuable than criticism of a "no-fly zone" we have already told him he is not going to get.
If he talks about the Budapest agreement, he should be talking privately to us and publicly about Putin breaking it.
The world and the UN has learned from this, and it's all about unity when facing a madman.
Each one could be his last, so I try to watch President Zelensky's daily videos as he rallies his nation and the world to fight back against Putin. You don't need to know the language to see his spirit shining through.
There has to be a way to thread the needle and provide air cover without NATO engaging Russians directly. Sure, it would be a dangerous logistical nightmare to supply heavy artillery and war planes to the Ukrainian defense forces (who would do the fighting, not us), but no more than the nightmare facing Russian generals on their side. Maybe the heavier armament can't reach the eastern and southern fronts in time, which may fall, but they could be in place to reinforce the western theatre, especially around Lviv to where Zelensky's government may have to retreat.
The bottom line: Ukraine -- and by extension, the world -- cannot allow overt fascism on such a scale ultimately to succeed. People have a right to defend themselves, and without escalating to nukes. Of course, Putin may not agree. That's the calculation and the risk.
The Polish government just threw something new into the fray, and the Pentagon is not happy about it. I don't get why the Ukrainian pilots could not get to the planes. But logistics aside, here is the position we are facing: anything and everything we do could be used as an excuse for Putin to claim it was an act of war.
When you go to sleep, don't be surprised what you wake-up to concerning Putin. The one thing people who are real experts on him and his mental illness have stated is that he is utterly unpredictable.
This is Putin saying my way or the highway, and sadly the highway is lined with nukes. NATO and the democracies have chosen to take a stand, but judging by Crimea and what was the existing protracted fight, our military expected Putin/Russia to take Ukraine. I'm guessing we thought he was all geared-up to do it quickly. So did Putin, but the lazy thieving bastard stole the money he could have used to prepare. Now he has to hire mercenaries to finish the job. All the Ukrainians are to him is an impediment to getting the job done and having what he wants.
Putin's unpredictability could be his undoing at home; whereas the solid predictability of a steady stream of conventional defensive weaponry entering Ukraine under UN authority for use by that nation's own capable military is the hard reality Putin should expect each morning he wakes up and commits atrocities and war crimes in direct violation of international law and human decency.
Drones with Hellfire missiles and artillery batteries with anti-aircraft and long-range surface-to-surface capability would effectively augment shoulder-fired projectiles in Ukraine's battle to defend her skies and prevent death from raining down on defenseless civilians. And they have their own seasoned pilots who could be trained to operate any allied aircraft lent to the effort.
There comes a point when the other kids on the block have to stand up to the bully. If Putin's plan is to commit suicide and take the world with him, he might just press the big red button over the devastating economic sanctions already imposed upon him and his cronies, which together threaten to destroy Russia quicker than pushing back on his humiliating military misadventure in another sovereign nation. Yet, he has not done so.
Sooner or later the West will have to call his bluff, or he'll keep raising the bet. The Sperm of Stalin is trying to reconstitute the old Russian empire; why would he stop at Ukraine?
This agreement has been violated by only one country, Russia. Russia is solely responsible for this war, and solely to blame for all the death, injuries, refugees, and economic damage to all the countries of the world. The world has stood up to Russia dramatically and in many areas, including economic, trade, diplomatic isolation, and increasing military aid to help Ukraine defend itself. These things are helping to deter Russian aggression! The agreement says we will seek UN Security Council action, which we have done! Who prevented it? Russia!
The pressure and even the suggestion that another country should join the war against Russia is frankly disastrous and just plain wrong. Ukraine's churlish insistence that the world is not doing enough to help them is counterproductive. Their unified resistance to the invasion is admirable, and they should continue in that course without conditions on the rest of the world because it is the heroic and patriotic thing to do. They are not finding Russia to save Europe; they are fighting Russia to save Ukraine!
I strongly believe that other countries or NATO entering the war against Russia will not benefit Ukraine, will only lead to a wider war, and will help Putin by convincing his citizens that he was right: their enemy was NATO all along!
I know 50-50 hindsight won't help Ukraine but can't help thinking that we could have supplied Ukraine defense forces under this agreement while Russia arranged their attack forces for months along the border.
Perhaps we should start referring to Putin as Stalin rather than Hitler. He's starving the Ukrainians that he won't allow out of the country and what western voices that got through to the Russian people would key their thinking to the enemy within.
Intelligence reports have surmised that Putin adulates and emulates Stalin and has a deep-set desire (delusion) to reconstitute the glory days of Russian imperialism and hegemony in the region. He sees that as Russia's destiny and his own place in history. In reality, he'll go down as just another megalomaniacal tyrant trying to be something more than a mass murderer and goddamn fool -- a small man with a small mind.
Another fantastic, on-target piece, Thom !! Thanks for reminding us about the Budapest Memorandum. Given that Putin has already violated items 1 & 2 of that accord by not respecting Ukraine's border nor refraining from attacking Ukraine, I agree with you that something more needs to be done by the other two signatorees of that 1994 agreement. You mentioned the
other day a possible no-man's land established by the West just inside Russia's border with Ukraine. Here's another option: 1) The USA & UK give Putin a 24-hour notice to remove all of its aircraft from Ukrainian air space---or be shot down. And 2) the USA & UK give Putin & his military 48 hours to announce & implement a total ceasefire of their forces inside & outside Ukraine--else all Russian & allied land & sea forces will be attacked & eliminated. Also, the USA & UK would directly communicate to Putin & his military--and also announce simultaneously to the rest of the world--that the USA & UK WILL NOT USE ANY NUCLEAR WEAPONS in this limited, peace-restoring operation inside Ukraine. This will be a limited military operation to restore Ukraine's security as promised in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum--and that's all. Would this be risking a nuclear WWIII ?? I think not doing so has the same risk because Putin is not going to stop until someone stops him--remember Syria & Chechnya !! I don't see why the Ukrainian people & government should suffer our lack of resolve to keep out commitments after they trusted us & gave up their nukes. As you reminded us today: What a lesson for other wannabe nuclear nations liked North Korea & Iran....eh? What kind of world do we want to live in going forward?