This was a fine analysis as usual, and one with too many parallels to the 1930s when the Axis dictators ate away at their neighbors. At the time most Americans and western Europeans, with painful memories of the Great War, wanted to believe the empty promises of the aggressors. So they did nothing until only war was possible. The victors of the resulting conflict were of course the U.S. and the Soviet Union.
Times change but bullies don't. With excellent timing Putin is trying to reestablish his historic national empire. With Russia's weak economy that's probably not going to happen. But he can do a lot of damage and the victor of any lasting conflict will only be China.
Should Trump or someone like him regain power that will only accelerate America's international decline. Given a weakened Europe, a still limited Russia and a China with large but not world dominating aims we could well be entering a new era of regional powers. Perhaps these will balance one another, playing off weaker states for their own advantage, and forming shifting alliances somewhat like Orwell predicted. But one thing will be clear. Despite national bombastic claims by the victors of World War II, the era of super powers will have ended.
Super piece, as usual, Thom ! I've long liked your earlier show title "The Big Picture" and immediately got & read the book you recommended "The Fourth Turning" by Howe & Strauss (1997)...which I find all the more remarkable today given their prediction that the next Crisis...the next 4th Turning...would come to a climax somewhere between 2020 and 2025. We are there....yeh? History is repeating itself once more. The authors point out that our previous three 4th Turnings were: 1) Revolutionary War of Independence, 2) Civil War, & 3) Great Republican Depression & WWII. Is there a theme here? How about "authoritarianism vs. egalitarianism"? Or more simply "monarchs & dictators vs. democracy"? Why these....you might ask? Perhaps it has to do with the nature of the "animals running the zoo"? Us. Humans ! Apparently the War of the Roses kicked off this repeating 4-part cycle when a commoner defeated & killed the King of England and then announced himself king. Ahhh...the perpetual desire of the human ego for POWER ! First for "Freedom"...but then the victims-become-victors get drunk on their newly-acquired power...as in "Power corrupts....and absolute power corrupts absolutely"....eh? And so who is this latest instigator of Crisis on the Human Scene? Vladimir Putin....former KGB agent and wanna-be Peter-the-Great or perhaps Katherine-the-Great! A new Russian Czar...but with a reconstituted USSR / Soviet Empire. If the real problem was NATO, as someone pointed out recently, Putin would be attacking Paris because France has nukes that can easily reach Moscow....but Ukraine gave up theirs decades ago. No, Putin wants his beloved Soviet Empire reconstructed...with all the credit & praise going to him. Ego-trip....anyone? Really? This is all? Well, I propose...not quite. Like you have been pointing out repeatedly, Thom, we have a world-wide struggle going on between budding democracies that believe in human rights, freedom, and egalitarianism....and authoritarian regimes with dictators, oligarchs, & other "strong men" who demand control over everything and everyone. Why this ridiculousness? Here's where this becomes a little "science-geeky"...'K? How about the real struggle is inside the thing running this show--the Human mind? Do we have a struggle between our self-centered, power-seeking, small ego and our caring, giving, sharing Big Self ? Or in cranial terms: our "fight-or-flight" amygdala vs. our contemplative, rational pre-frontal cortex...? In short, are we Humans caught in an evolutionary seculum-repeating struggle every 80-100 years between these two forces--inside our heads and between our nations--so cleverly devised by our dichotomous universe ? Howe & Strauss said: "Crisis-era wars were all large, deadly, and decisive. Homefront resolve conformed to the visions of elder leaders, and the outcome totally redefined the kingdom, nation, or empire." (p. 119). Will we break with this pattern and somehow resolve this peacefully (at least until Putin leaves the world)...or will we have another "Crisis-era war"?
Sen. Sander's take is wise as always. TikTok is also the kid's platform of choice for freedom of expression right now, which may be more intentional on China's part than it is ironic. Or it just happens to be popular and China's making a bundle on it, I'm not sure. China's spying is not so much sophisticated as it is globally pervasive. Russia's games are much more chess-like than anything, with strategies that only appear after they're implemented.
I think this is one of the reasons the right-wing favors authoritarianism - it takes a long time to establish a program to "rule the world", one that presidential term limits don't allow for. If one president creates a program, the next one will shut it down, like Carter's solar bank. We swing back and forth from right to left, getting nowhere on progress towards a sustainable egalitarian civilization.
why isn't the US concerned with problems here in the Great State of USA!!!? Why can't we fix Mexico and South America? Why Thom? America and the West are failed states of colonialism/capitalism/christianity/cannibalism/CARNAGECARNGECARNAGE. You are wrong about War-War is Murder by definition. One Nation Under G-d? My fucking ass. Damn your Christian Privilege and false message of your Progressive Beliefs. Bring Your Patriotism to the Funerals and Wakes..Pray for Peace Fool. Thanks for your really left wing abandonment of principle and Faith in G-d's System. Are you a closet Geek/Techno worshipper Thom? You seem to have your Faith in Mankind's ability to reap and sow their drivel of no spiritually in the realm of existence. Make yourself ready for the Metaphysical Realm. Thanks Thom say hello to Louise...
The Russians and the Ukrainians should be making love not war. They are both well into the negative population growth column. War is an interesting term concerning what Putin just kicked-off. There are Ukrainian military casualties, but this ain't exactly D Day.
If, when, and where Zelensky will decide to engage on a massive level is the question. He just declared martial law and then told his citizens to carry-on.
There is no cultural freedom in Russia, and that's what is really at stake in Ukraine along with their democracy. Oh and add to that whatever money and resources Putin can steal. The crazed bully has made his move. Are they going to just stay home?
Is there not one person within Putin's circle brave enough to rid the world of this old menace, this thief, this crazy person? Alexei Anatolievich Navalny is a hero, he has tried to do it legally. Putin is an aging, paranoid, psychopath. That is his ONLY game. He is not brilliant, and he is not playing "chess" or a long game.
Thank you. Have heard you are multidimensional in your interests and pursuits. Series out you may have heard of, started yesterday: changing of the gods, describing world changes. Too early to tell its quality/impact. Runs 10 days for less than hour each, it appears. Hope ok to share with you here.
Tragic that we are the bullies of the black and brown world (Central America and the Middle East) and Putin is the bully of Europe. Perhaps Biden should have negotiated with Putin, although of course Republicans and Fox News would say he was "weak" and Democrats would have freaked over any discussion with Putin (the McCarthy era has shifted from Republicans in the 1950s to the Democrats today). Since NATO troops are ostensibly not on the offensive, perhaps Biden could have assuaged Putin by committing to pulling back NATO troops and publicly announcing that Ukraine would not be a part of NATO in the foreseeable future. The provocations of our insane media and intelligence agencies left an egotist like Putin with no choice, so perhaps if another option was offered that made it look like he was getting the upper hand the Ukranian people would not have to suffer. Establishment politicians do Establishment things and Establishment progressives seem to line up right behind them. If our media and our politicians did not benefit so much from war perhaps we would not be engaging in it and enabling it. When Biden says this was Putin's choice he's about 75% correct in my estimation, but there was room for negotiation which you discounted Thom just like those whose poll numbers rise when war is imminent.
This was a fine analysis as usual, and one with too many parallels to the 1930s when the Axis dictators ate away at their neighbors. At the time most Americans and western Europeans, with painful memories of the Great War, wanted to believe the empty promises of the aggressors. So they did nothing until only war was possible. The victors of the resulting conflict were of course the U.S. and the Soviet Union.
Times change but bullies don't. With excellent timing Putin is trying to reestablish his historic national empire. With Russia's weak economy that's probably not going to happen. But he can do a lot of damage and the victor of any lasting conflict will only be China.
Should Trump or someone like him regain power that will only accelerate America's international decline. Given a weakened Europe, a still limited Russia and a China with large but not world dominating aims we could well be entering a new era of regional powers. Perhaps these will balance one another, playing off weaker states for their own advantage, and forming shifting alliances somewhat like Orwell predicted. But one thing will be clear. Despite national bombastic claims by the victors of World War II, the era of super powers will have ended.
Super piece, as usual, Thom ! I've long liked your earlier show title "The Big Picture" and immediately got & read the book you recommended "The Fourth Turning" by Howe & Strauss (1997)...which I find all the more remarkable today given their prediction that the next Crisis...the next 4th Turning...would come to a climax somewhere between 2020 and 2025. We are there....yeh? History is repeating itself once more. The authors point out that our previous three 4th Turnings were: 1) Revolutionary War of Independence, 2) Civil War, & 3) Great Republican Depression & WWII. Is there a theme here? How about "authoritarianism vs. egalitarianism"? Or more simply "monarchs & dictators vs. democracy"? Why these....you might ask? Perhaps it has to do with the nature of the "animals running the zoo"? Us. Humans ! Apparently the War of the Roses kicked off this repeating 4-part cycle when a commoner defeated & killed the King of England and then announced himself king. Ahhh...the perpetual desire of the human ego for POWER ! First for "Freedom"...but then the victims-become-victors get drunk on their newly-acquired power...as in "Power corrupts....and absolute power corrupts absolutely"....eh? And so who is this latest instigator of Crisis on the Human Scene? Vladimir Putin....former KGB agent and wanna-be Peter-the-Great or perhaps Katherine-the-Great! A new Russian Czar...but with a reconstituted USSR / Soviet Empire. If the real problem was NATO, as someone pointed out recently, Putin would be attacking Paris because France has nukes that can easily reach Moscow....but Ukraine gave up theirs decades ago. No, Putin wants his beloved Soviet Empire reconstructed...with all the credit & praise going to him. Ego-trip....anyone? Really? This is all? Well, I propose...not quite. Like you have been pointing out repeatedly, Thom, we have a world-wide struggle going on between budding democracies that believe in human rights, freedom, and egalitarianism....and authoritarian regimes with dictators, oligarchs, & other "strong men" who demand control over everything and everyone. Why this ridiculousness? Here's where this becomes a little "science-geeky"...'K? How about the real struggle is inside the thing running this show--the Human mind? Do we have a struggle between our self-centered, power-seeking, small ego and our caring, giving, sharing Big Self ? Or in cranial terms: our "fight-or-flight" amygdala vs. our contemplative, rational pre-frontal cortex...? In short, are we Humans caught in an evolutionary seculum-repeating struggle every 80-100 years between these two forces--inside our heads and between our nations--so cleverly devised by our dichotomous universe ? Howe & Strauss said: "Crisis-era wars were all large, deadly, and decisive. Homefront resolve conformed to the visions of elder leaders, and the outcome totally redefined the kingdom, nation, or empire." (p. 119). Will we break with this pattern and somehow resolve this peacefully (at least until Putin leaves the world)...or will we have another "Crisis-era war"?
Sen. Sander's take is wise as always. TikTok is also the kid's platform of choice for freedom of expression right now, which may be more intentional on China's part than it is ironic. Or it just happens to be popular and China's making a bundle on it, I'm not sure. China's spying is not so much sophisticated as it is globally pervasive. Russia's games are much more chess-like than anything, with strategies that only appear after they're implemented.
I think this is one of the reasons the right-wing favors authoritarianism - it takes a long time to establish a program to "rule the world", one that presidential term limits don't allow for. If one president creates a program, the next one will shut it down, like Carter's solar bank. We swing back and forth from right to left, getting nowhere on progress towards a sustainable egalitarian civilization.
why isn't the US concerned with problems here in the Great State of USA!!!? Why can't we fix Mexico and South America? Why Thom? America and the West are failed states of colonialism/capitalism/christianity/cannibalism/CARNAGECARNGECARNAGE. You are wrong about War-War is Murder by definition. One Nation Under G-d? My fucking ass. Damn your Christian Privilege and false message of your Progressive Beliefs. Bring Your Patriotism to the Funerals and Wakes..Pray for Peace Fool. Thanks for your really left wing abandonment of principle and Faith in G-d's System. Are you a closet Geek/Techno worshipper Thom? You seem to have your Faith in Mankind's ability to reap and sow their drivel of no spiritually in the realm of existence. Make yourself ready for the Metaphysical Realm. Thanks Thom say hello to Louise...
The Russians and the Ukrainians should be making love not war. They are both well into the negative population growth column. War is an interesting term concerning what Putin just kicked-off. There are Ukrainian military casualties, but this ain't exactly D Day.
If, when, and where Zelensky will decide to engage on a massive level is the question. He just declared martial law and then told his citizens to carry-on.
There is no cultural freedom in Russia, and that's what is really at stake in Ukraine along with their democracy. Oh and add to that whatever money and resources Putin can steal. The crazed bully has made his move. Are they going to just stay home?
Is there not one person within Putin's circle brave enough to rid the world of this old menace, this thief, this crazy person? Alexei Anatolievich Navalny is a hero, he has tried to do it legally. Putin is an aging, paranoid, psychopath. That is his ONLY game. He is not brilliant, and he is not playing "chess" or a long game.
NATO is a farce. A paper tiger. Putin knows this and can freely intimidate any European country he pleases. The Baltic states are next.
Thank you. Have heard you are multidimensional in your interests and pursuits. Series out you may have heard of, started yesterday: changing of the gods, describing world changes. Too early to tell its quality/impact. Runs 10 days for less than hour each, it appears. Hope ok to share with you here.
Tragic that we are the bullies of the black and brown world (Central America and the Middle East) and Putin is the bully of Europe. Perhaps Biden should have negotiated with Putin, although of course Republicans and Fox News would say he was "weak" and Democrats would have freaked over any discussion with Putin (the McCarthy era has shifted from Republicans in the 1950s to the Democrats today). Since NATO troops are ostensibly not on the offensive, perhaps Biden could have assuaged Putin by committing to pulling back NATO troops and publicly announcing that Ukraine would not be a part of NATO in the foreseeable future. The provocations of our insane media and intelligence agencies left an egotist like Putin with no choice, so perhaps if another option was offered that made it look like he was getting the upper hand the Ukranian people would not have to suffer. Establishment politicians do Establishment things and Establishment progressives seem to line up right behind them. If our media and our politicians did not benefit so much from war perhaps we would not be engaging in it and enabling it. When Biden says this was Putin's choice he's about 75% correct in my estimation, but there was room for negotiation which you discounted Thom just like those whose poll numbers rise when war is imminent.