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docrhw Weil's avatar

This situation is more complicated than just the sheer numbers of humans, since about 20% of all people use roughly 80% of its resources. So what we have is a massive imbalance of impacts on the planet, with the rich really taking far more than share. And actually birth (and death) rates have dropped dramatically in the more developed countries, a process continuing as countries everywhere urbanize (and right now 56% of the world lives in cities). Even India has dropped below replacement rate, though given its sheer size and large agricultural population it will continue to grow in numbers for a couple of generations.

But none of this bodes well for the future of the planet. As people become richer they naturally want to live better, so the long term effect is that less folks are going to take more. I cannot imagine any politician pushing against this, and so any changes will have to be cultural ones from the bottom up. We are nowhere near that, and certainly the countries that are just improving their standards of living will refuse to be left holding the bag for the excesses of those that have already reach higher standards. It will probably take a century or so to reach some sort of balance here, assuming the Earth can last that long, and at that point the total population of the world, while declining, would have reached close to 10 billion people. Maybe some massive disaster that finally gets it through peoples’ heads that was is happening will require some real changes, but it won't be easy. Watch the mainstream evening news about "unusual weather" and listen for the words "climate change." You won't hear them.

If you want to do a disturbing experiment go to one of several sites that let you calculate your "ecological footprint." These are only rough approximations of what people take from the Earth, but the typical American uses about 4 "planets" worth of resources a year. Trying to get that value under one requires living almost in the 18th century. That's not going to happen either.

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Tony S's avatar

I live in Central Illinois and we were supposed to see a rare double appearance of cicadas. So far all we have is silence. I think our agriculture is killing the planet.

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