Do you realize Democrats are currently slaughtering their families as we speak? Is there any line Democrats could cross that would make you say "I'm not supporting them?" Are you able to see that Trump exists as he does because Democrats have their priorities completely inverted and their policies including the ACA are predicated upon lies and lobbyists?
From what Thom says in this article, Jill Stein sounds like someone running not as a Green, but as an anti-Democrat. Maybe that explains what she was doing at that conference with Putin a few years back.
More troubling are the Muslims and Young Black Males that said that they aren't going to vote Democratic, and if Trump wins they are going to blame the Democrats for helping Israel and not doing enough for blacks.
Fools, every last one of them. If Trump wins they will be the first to realize that they fucked up. Trump is Bibi's brother from an another mother, the Trump humpers don't hide their racism, and Trump has said he is going to deport Muslims.
But the Muslims and young black males, and the greenies can engage in mastubatory self congratulations believing that they sure have taught the Democrats a thing or two, as they are rounded up into concentration camps, and find that they are now officially relegated to second class citizen status.
Project 2025 and Agenda 47 have them in mind, especially the greenies.
The one thing both parties agree on is having a foreign policy based on a defense which is second to none. There are differences of degree, but not of kind, between Republicans and Democrats on this. Stein won't be president, because she's third-party in a two-party system; but Trump or Harris will be. I opt for the one of those two who will not order anti-genocide demonstrators to be shot.
The polls don’t look good. Please, let’s post on social media and try to turn this around. Feel free to use the following:
Bob Woodward says that Trump and Putin have a closer friendship than previously known. Trump may have made 7 phone calls to Putin during Biden’s term. Trump had called Putin smart and a genius for invading Ukraine. Trump urged Republicans to block a Ukrainian aid bill, greatly delaying the aid.
A Trump peace deal would likely require Ukraine conceding to Putin’s demands. This would hugely damage US alliances said William Pomerantz, an analyst at the Wilson Center in Washington DC.
A Russian victory would likely embolden China to invade Taiwan and would likely lead to more invasions by Russia after 5 years.
The information above comes from Business Insider. Story by Tom Porter and Harrah Abraham “Trump’s close relationship with Putin could come back to haunt the US”
Please, vote for democracy worldwide. Vote for Harris. Feel free to re post this.
It would be good to know more info about the Russians who visited Trump when he first got into the White House, the reason we had to pull a spy out and the spies that went missing after Trump got a list of spies. This should be widely known. Thanks for all you do Thom!
Doug: The polls got it wrong in 2015, 2020, 2022 pollsters and the corporate media feed themselves on conflict, competition, the horse race.
My hope is that, abortion which the media has buried, will raise it's head and wipe the slate clean of Republicans, but the Harris Campaign has to absolutely keep pounding that drum.
Simon sez National polling remains steady and encouraging for Harris. Here is what we’ve seen in recent days:
51%-45% (+6) Morning Consult (gained a point since last week)
49%-44% (+5) Susquehanna
50%-46% (+4) Big Village
49%-45% (+4) Research Co.
49%-46% (+4) NYT/Siena (4 pts with rounding/this is a 4 pt gain since the last poll)
49%-45% (+4) Economist/YouGov (gained a point since last week)
49%-46% (+3) TIPP/Issues and Insights (TIPP polls for rw groups)
49%-46% (+3) Data For Progress
50%-48% (+2) NPR/Marist
48%-46% (+2) Redfield & Wilton
47%-45% (+2) Reuters/Ipsos
48%-47% (+1) Yahoo/YouGov
Some of the major national polls this week showed Harris gaining ground. She gained 4 points in the New York Times poll. In the two weekly tracks I follow closely, Morning Consult and Economist/YouGov, she gained a point since last week. To be clear - in these three highly credible polls Harris has her biggest leads of the election.
IMHO none of the polls consider that Trump underperformed in his own primaries. Also don't consider the "new" registrations.
The Bulwark has a report about a promising new poll of Haley voters:
A SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF SELF-IDENTIFIED Nikki Haley voters say they will support Kamala Harris for president, according to a new survey shared exclusively with The Bulwark.
If the election were held today, Donald Trump would win just 45 percent of those who backed Haley in the GOP primary while 36 percent said they’d back Harris, the new poll shows, according to the survey of 781 registered Republicans and independents conducted by the new Democratic-leaning polling outfit Blueprint. The poll did not include Democrats or Democrat-leaning Independents who supported Haley.
I used to have to 1. qualify experts. and 2. submit them to cross examination before 3. obtain an educated OPINION. A judge or jury makes the ultimate decision.
E.G. Computer scientists, mathematicians, statisticians testified in my "big box" cases where qualified experts would take opposing positions re i.e. what is a valid statistical sample or what factors constitute "reliable" subjects.
I keep askin' how do they reconcile the fact that Trump underperformed in the primaries? This goes to reliability.
How do they handle the "new" registrations.
The burden of proof should be on the pollster. They all look invalid to me.
I've written about this previously. Watch but don't bet. I also don't trust bookies.
The worst aspect is that polls are not "news" per se. The question with expert testimony is 'based on your education and experience and based on the facts please render your OPINION to a "reasonable degree of probability."'
9 times out of 10 the judge or jury has to reconcile opposing opinions.
Nope Steve, I'm old AF also. I don't have a cell phone and have caller ID on my landline. If I don't recognize the caller I don't answer, If it is important it goes to the answering machine.
Mr. Solomon, I participated in research teams that designed surveys in Iowa and Michigan. You are correct to be somewhat skeptical about survey outcomes. Not because the designers are scoundrels, purposely biassing the study. But because, like any other complicated enterprise, surveys cost money and require expertise. If the money is short, the designers cut corners. Even if the expertise is there, errors can occur because of the nature of inferential statistics. One must not ignore that word "inferential." Inferences are made based on past experience and probability.
Many people critique the wording of the questions in surveys. This is legitimate criticism. But it is not foundational. A more important critique of a survey requires an examination of how the sample is constructed. It must follow the accepted rules for "stratified, random samples." Exactly how samples are stratified and randomized is a topic requiring a thick textbook. I cannot explain how this is done here. The explanation requires an entire course in sampling at the graduate level. The first really useful book to take on the subject was written by Rensis Likert at the university of Michigan. I recall that it was not easy to follow, and required that the student had a sound background in both inferential statistics and the social sciences. Likert is remembered for the many books he wrote about management and foremost, for his famous "Likert Scale" which is used in research around the world. But in my opinion, it was his writing about proper sample design which is perhaps most important.
If one searches for a copy of the books of Rensis Likert one finds many on Management, but his text on sampling is like gold, and difficult to find. In the many moves I have made since I worked on survey research, I have unfortunately lost my copy.
For those who wish to look into this subject in some detail I suggest using the words "stratified random sampling" as your guide. Likert was a social psychologist, so a background in both the social sciences and inferential statistics is essential. There are other books besides Likert's out there as well.
Sir Okie Doke, I met Dr. Jill Stein only once, years ago in a conference at Columbia U. She struck me as serious, sincere, intelligent as hell, and she was open to criticism. I criticized her ideas to her face in a seminar. My question to her can be boiled down to something like; even if you succeed in making your point to the Democratic Party, what makes you think they will heed your effort? She responded in a reasonable fashion, even though I was in agreement with those who believed she was a spoiler. She encouraged me to enter politics and make my ideas public even though we disagreed.
She was not "Some kind of pinko?" or "A commie rat" and she was in the political arena long before anyone outside of New York had heard of the loathsome Trump or cared about Putin.
Jill Stein, Tulsi Gabbard, RFK Jr are self aggrandizers, hitching their wagon to what they perceive as the winner like most others including the Flynn brothers, which causes me to criticize Joe for not only keeping Gen Charles Flynn, but promoting him to full general and assigning me as commander Pacific Forces. This traitor sat at the desk of the Acting Sectary of Defense on Jan 6th and let the phone ring off the hook.And Biden not only keeps him, but promotes him twice.
I didn' say that there was anything Marxist about Putin or Russia
But among the old guard Marxists, there is an affection for Russia. They see Russia as a victim of American imperialism and capitalism.
Just as you have done, when you claim that the only empire is the American one.
Putin is an aggressive Imperialist, and you have to be wilfully blind or a Putinist not to see it.
America was Imperialist, but those days are over. Granted corporations use governments to advance and protect their interests by those corporations are global, and have no nationality. Their loyalty is to themselves, their survival and their investors, and that includes the state corporations like those in Russia run by oligarchs.
No, you are definitely wrong. Russia is imperialist, first Ukraine, then Lithuania, then the Baltic states, Moldova, the Balkans, if that isn't imperialism then there is no such thing.
Marx was a proto libertarian. A free trader, who thought that gold was the standard of value. Marx had nothing but disdain for the lower class, the laborers. In his time there was no such concept or words as upper class, middle class, lower class, He virtually coined the words bourgeoisie and proletariat.
His screed, had no mention at all of the ruling class, for a reason, because it was the ruling class of financiers,that financed him as The League of Just Men.
The USSR claiming to be Marxist, adopted his gold as a standard of value, and pegged a ruble as .9871 grams fine gold and issued only as many rubles as there was gold, and thus vigilantly guarded their gold stores.
It was a capital crime to smuggle rubles out of Russia, Because a foreigner could present rubles at the NordBank in Paris and demand gold, which then reduced the money supply. And that is why Russia was in a perpetual state of depression, not enough rubles to fulfill consumer demand.
Setting that aside Allen. I never said that Russia was Marxist. Go back and re read my original post
They are indeed old guard Marxists, but I was not saying that Russia was Marxist. If you read the link about Tankie's,you might get the drift.
Tankies were old guard Marxists, who has an affection for Russia, as is obvious that this is an affection shared by Noam Chomsky, Amy Goodman, Karen Van derhuevel and her husband, Chris Hedges and others. They can't see Russia for what its, because their eyes are glazed over.
And your hero Jill Stein is a piece of shit, an ally and facilitator of the genocidist Putin.
Have you asked Trump if he is a commie, or a pinko?
There is nothing democratic about the electoral college, either, pal.
We use these types of misnomers to besmirch. That said, where do you get the temerity to chide 330,000,000 Americans? Who the heck are you, Allen, if that, indeed, is YOUR real name?
Sir okie dokie calling Putin a communist would be a compliment. You too just misunderstood each other! Putin and XI are capitalists that the Republican party has put into place since the 1980s in my humble opinion.
However, just like a gerbil in a squeaky hamster-wheel, I must hereby reduce your Ukrainian-based palaver to "Perma-Dismissed" status due to a surfeit of noise.
Ironic that she is trying to convince Muslims to teach Democrats a lesson and to help Trump become President again. Trump said he would give Netanyahoo the go-ahead to level Gaza. Music to the ears of his son in-law Jared, who sees Gaza as appealing waterfront property.
The only patriotic thing for Stein to do is remove her name from the ballot and morph her candidacy into a fight for truly representational government. Her ego- flexing muscle just to show that she can put Trump back into office- is counterproductive and dangerous. But there's a bigger question for the rest of us. We know the two party system, the electoral college, the way the Supreme Court is confirmed, is failing us. Given the way the court has bastardized the First Amendment, we may need to modify it. Are we willing to do the long work and pursue the necessary constitutional amendments, with all the legal and political uncertainty that will bring?
Its hard to believe that Muslims would act to let into the White House again a depraved grifter like Trump, who advocates Muslim bans, mass deportations, getting rid of "bad genes", and ending the Middle east conflict fast by nuking or bombing Iran, Gaza, Lebanon turning them into beach front property. Can't the Democrats deal with the Muslim populations through mediators like Tlaib and others to promise a seat at the table when this election is won by Kamala and Walz - live to fight another day. For a two-state solution. There will be no "other day" if Trump wins.
Jack, people all of the time act contrary to their own best interests. They cut off their nose to spite their face. In the case of Muslims and others, they delude themselves into believing that the Democrats will learn their lesson after being punished, and fall in line and kow tow to them, only there won't be a next time. If Trump wins, the 2028 election if any, will be a Orban-Putan style sham. And the Muslims can rejoice that they taught the Democrats a lesson, as Trump rounds them up and puts them in concentration camps, awaiting deportation.
Bu they will never accept personal responsibility. Ayman Moheyldin of MSNBC abdicated responsiblity, months ago when he said that if Trump wins it is the Democrats fault for supporting Israel.,ignoring the fact that Muslim not voting will elect Trump and Trump is no friend of Muslims and is the BFF of Bibi.
William: It's depressing that you can never see any side but your own, exclusively. Both Harris and Biden are eager supporters of genocide. True, they aren't alone. How many leaders can be accused of this? Hitler? The Hutu leader? Stalin had other reasons. I'm sure you can supply a few more but there aren't many who have so enthusiastically supplied all of the weapons and support for a genocide, especially recently. How can you just ignore and excuse this? Jill Stein never supported any genocide! So what if she once had a dinner with Putin? There's nothing unethical about that. She had no gifts to promise him, unlike Trump. If you stopped your whining about spoilers and voted en masse for Stein, she would be the leading candidate instead of a dark horse for your preferred murderers. You don't have to agree with me (and few of you will) but why can't you step back and see the political tapestry for a change instead of just hammering everyone else with your little prejudices?
Let's talk about Genocide. Oct 7th was the opening shot, the latest one,on a genocide of Jews See the preamble to the HAMAS covenant and Para 7, Art 7 of same, which by the way is a verbatim extract from sacred Islamic scripture, verse 1295/1296, Book 56, hadith 139 al Bukhari.. That is genocide, You see according to Art II, the UN Covenant on the Prevention of Genocide, to declare genocide, requires intention, and Islam, especially HAMAS has declared intention.
I had to get that out of the way before I expressed my opinion of you and your bullshit. And that is take your opinion and shove it up your ass, because I don't give a hit.
Jill Stein is virtually sucking the cock of a mass murderin, imperialistic, genocider. Your buddy Putin.
From Jack Kaplan: The tactical point here is that now is precisely the time for Tlaib in Michigan to ask for a role, representing the 100,000+ voting uncommitted in the Michigan primary, in shaping the next administration's policy toward the Middle East conflicts and their resolutions. The preference is to have those 100,000 support Kamala-Walz and this would be the most opportune moment. I assume they would be advocating for a two-state solution. Perhaps it would quiet some of the more extreme voices that are pro-Hamas and pro-terrorist, bordering on advocating the destruction of Israel and out-and out antisemitism. Perhaps this has happened already. I noticed Tlaib sent out an email asking for funds for her campaign, and support for the Democratic ticket in Michigan. I would like to see a regional peace conference, locking everyone in the room until its settled - like some union/corporate labor negotiations. Perhaps Israel, and even Netanyahu might give assent as their credit rating and economy goes into the tank. Biden did seem to get the ILWU workers strike paused until January, after the election, with a 65% wage increase. Perhaps they could bring in the help of some concerned AIPAC billionaires to move the needle on Israel's side toward a negotiation. One can only hope, which while it springs eternal, is much better than a full-blown war.
Frightening. Thom. Do you think it is over? Can Kamala still win? I toss and turn at night about this. I know "despair is not an option", but that is where I am.
Pennsylvania is Pittsburgh in the west Phillie in the East and Kentucky in between or Pennsyltucky
I live in Washington and if it weren't for the I-5 Corridor, Snohomish and King County, we would be Alabama. South of King County and east of the Casacade Mountains is Alabama.Oregon is in the same situation, the NW of the State is blue, the rest is red, here is a map of all of the blue districts/counties in the US https://www.sightline.org/2022/02/15/our-maps-shouldnt-lie-about-our-votes/
We suffer the tyranny of the majority-minority, rural America..
The simplistic and false answer that rural America is neglected and deprecated, The real reason is because they are culturally endogenous and incestuous, ignorance and bigotry is taught and reinforced by church, grange, VFW, American Legion, press and pulpit.
That should be obvious, because as you get into the larger cities, where there is exposure to other cultures and ideas, you move into Democratic areas.
Your nose for corruption must be pretty good, Thom, after so many years of observing and talking to the politicians.
Dr. Stein has talked about leaving the Dems over campaign finance reform and then criticized the Wall Street connections of both parties. So it would seem that she wants us to think it is all about the influence of money on politics.
In the meantime, Jill the investor has made a killing with her portfolio. Seems her focus there isn't always so GREEN.
Being a doctor has not enabled her to see that Trump and Putin are psychopaths? Maybe all she wants to see is how money benefits her. Putin has stolen billions of the Russian people's money and he can pay top dollar. Just sayin'!
Alis: What makes you so especially brilliant? So Stein wants us to think about the influence of money on politics? You mean you don't? Is it time for you to find a larger seashell to live in?
So she made some money? Are you jealous or what? Do you resent her because she's not homeless? I never heard that she is a billionaire. Just not impecunious. Big deal!
I'm sure she knows as much about the psychological malefactions of Trump and Putin as you do. So what? Once again, is knowing this what makes YOU so brilliant? Jill Stein has never supported a genocide (so far as I can know). Harris and Biden do, enthusiastically. But is this a fact of no importance to you? How do you distinguish so facilely among bad guys? I'm just confused how it can be so simple for you.
Dr. Stein definitely made us think about the influence of money on politics, just not in a good way. Jill has been quoted on those investments. She was on the same page as you regarding them.
Good for you for defending her. She is not my kind of leader, and apparently she isn't Thom's either. He's smart enough for both of us.
I was listening today to (brilliant) Ralph Nader. I remember that when he was running, all the conventional Dems trotted out that invidious word "spoiler" even for him. I don't think he has any of the baggage (?) of Stein and yet it never occurred to those smart consultant and analytic types that here was a candidate par excellence. That all they had to do was mount a campaign for him and they could actually have a president who, for the first time, was not an arrogant SOB psychopath. So I'm not impressed by the imaginary defects of Stein. Those are not important in reality. What is important is maintaining the pipeline to the billionaires, which is done through the two major parties. Follow the money.
I hope Arab-Americans and Green Party environmentalists who are dissatisfied with some of Biden's policies and vote Green or stay home in protest enjoy the second tRump administration. I know I won't. GOTV and let's elect Harris.
Trump won’t be kind to Muslims. They need to accept the fact that there never are clear choices in governance. Weigh all the pros and cons and then decide.
Chris: You're probably right. Trump dislikes almost everyone. But at least he isn't committing genocide against a Muslim population AS WE SPEAK! The devil you know, is more appealing than the one you don't.
This is SO on the money. Thom Hartmann. I posted a link t this essay on Bill Astore’s Sustack thread [hoping some will read it]— there they think we can actually SURVIVE “teaching Democrats” another lesson, and they preset Stein as the only choice with integrity. Gad.
I know the hope of influencing and changing our country’s attitudes - and working to bring the Democratic Party back to a more truly democratic {and less in the pocket of big money} ethic is going to be HARD. But it’s what we have to work with — if the Federalist-Society-Heritage-Society-Project-2025 Gang takes over with Trump in tow, we may have Oligarchy and fascism for generations.
Thanks for your clarity, and the benefit of your experience, Mr. Hartmann.
Pat: We have already had Oligarchy and a kinder and gentler fascism for generations and will for generations more if the Dems have their way. Don't you think the Dems cuddle up to business for their money and influence? I've always thought that is the principal part of the definition of fascism. Do the Dem representatives give a damn what their (poor people) constituents want them to do.? Not that I've seen. Not until the people are willing to shed their blood and lose their lives for change (civil rights changes; women's choice). Are ordinary Americans in favor of genocide? I don't think so. We should not have to suffer and die, just to get a representative to vote for decency. Good luck working with Dems to "change their attitudes" while the rich are paying for attitude change every day against you.
You see, I think that is hyperbole and “both sides”-ism, and NOT recognizing the realities of the past few Republican administrations vis-a-vis the Dems.
I do NOT think Democrats are excellent — or even innocent of some very bad behavior in the world. But they’re not what the R’s have been.
You think they are “as bad” or even worse? {Gad, certainly not WORSE …!} Well, I think you’re way off in your thinking, and at the risk of irritating someone, I suggest you carry water for the autocrats around the world. And you enable them at the risk of our whole government and future democracy, Sure we have WEALTHY and influential Democrats, too, but that does not NECESSARILY equate with Oligarchs … The Democrats are NOT proposing that we usher in suspension of the Constitution, enabling of an above-the-law autocratic president, amplified destruction of the environment, and damned near permanent corruption of the power of the vote and the rule of law.
I think your seeing Dems as the equal threat compared to R’s is …. Well, gobsmacking. And ludicrous.
Since we have convinced ourselves that we are the world’s best democracy, it is hard to see the flaws in our system and the virtues of other systems. Like all forms of supremacy thinking—racial, gender, religious, etc.we only see our best traits and refuse to accept that there other equally valid systems from which we can learn.
America ranks 27th in the world in Upward mobility, and behind all of the "socialist countries"
The United States ranks poorly in healthcare compared to other countries in many areas, including:
Health outcomes
The U.S. has high rates of preventable deaths, and life expectancy is more than four years below the average of 10 other countries. The U.S. also has high rates of maternal mortality, and women in the U.S. have the highest rate of maternal mortality related to pregnancy and childbirth complications
The U.S ranks 36th in literacy globally
The U.S. has the highest incarceration rate in the world, with 716 people per 100,000 of the population.
The U.S. has the highest rate of firearm homicides among high-income countries with populations over 10 million.
Great piece this morning ☕ Thom.As you've been saying for years now, Third Party politics hurt's the front runner, and Jill Stein is not only trying to do just that, but has been in Putin's pocket for years(there's photos to prove it). Will see you tomorrow on FSTV, until then,a Big Shout out for "Jefferson Smith" and his Father too! 💯👍 Will reStack ASAP 💙🌊
Big effing smear! Do you also have a picture of Stein passing notes with state secrets (or her secret recipe for varnishkas) to Putin. Or maybe you think she's eating his shit with mayonnaise. Eating dinner is just so traitorous isn't it?
Ah, has your balloon been punctured. Your saint has been taken down off her pedestal. Notice who is at dinner with her, especially that traitor Mike Flynn,.
Systematic: I thought we all had a right to run for office. But not according to you. If we have the temerity to oppose someone or something else, we are creating chaos.
Just wish there was a way for Stein to not be on the ballot.
So frustrating how people continue to fall for these charlatans.
Do these Muslim Americans realize they will be jailed and then removed from this country if Trump is back in power?
This is just so aggravating to hear about things as this.
Do you realize Democrats are currently slaughtering their families as we speak? Is there any line Democrats could cross that would make you say "I'm not supporting them?" Are you able to see that Trump exists as he does because Democrats have their priorities completely inverted and their policies including the ACA are predicated upon lies and lobbyists?
From what Thom says in this article, Jill Stein sounds like someone running not as a Green, but as an anti-Democrat. Maybe that explains what she was doing at that conference with Putin a few years back.
She appeals to people who have some kind of “purist” attitude toward the major parties, but somehow don’t see the cracks in HER facade!
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/guess-who-came-dinner-flynn-putin-n742696
More troubling are the Muslims and Young Black Males that said that they aren't going to vote Democratic, and if Trump wins they are going to blame the Democrats for helping Israel and not doing enough for blacks.
Fools, every last one of them. If Trump wins they will be the first to realize that they fucked up. Trump is Bibi's brother from an another mother, the Trump humpers don't hide their racism, and Trump has said he is going to deport Muslims.
But the Muslims and young black males, and the greenies can engage in mastubatory self congratulations believing that they sure have taught the Democrats a thing or two, as they are rounded up into concentration camps, and find that they are now officially relegated to second class citizen status.
Project 2025 and Agenda 47 have them in mind, especially the greenies.
A Green Party candidate would be anti-Democrat because they are antiwar. anti-genocide, and pro humanity.
The one thing both parties agree on is having a foreign policy based on a defense which is second to none. There are differences of degree, but not of kind, between Republicans and Democrats on this. Stein won't be president, because she's third-party in a two-party system; but Trump or Harris will be. I opt for the one of those two who will not order anti-genocide demonstrators to be shot.
I can be pretty sure who you mean, then …
The polls don’t look good. Please, let’s post on social media and try to turn this around. Feel free to use the following:
Bob Woodward says that Trump and Putin have a closer friendship than previously known. Trump may have made 7 phone calls to Putin during Biden’s term. Trump had called Putin smart and a genius for invading Ukraine. Trump urged Republicans to block a Ukrainian aid bill, greatly delaying the aid.
A Trump peace deal would likely require Ukraine conceding to Putin’s demands. This would hugely damage US alliances said William Pomerantz, an analyst at the Wilson Center in Washington DC.
A Russian victory would likely embolden China to invade Taiwan and would likely lead to more invasions by Russia after 5 years.
The information above comes from Business Insider. Story by Tom Porter and Harrah Abraham “Trump’s close relationship with Putin could come back to haunt the US”
Please, vote for democracy worldwide. Vote for Harris. Feel free to re post this.
It would be good to know more info about the Russians who visited Trump when he first got into the White House, the reason we had to pull a spy out and the spies that went missing after Trump got a list of spies. This should be widely known. Thanks for all you do Thom!
From Russia with Lev, by Rachel Maddow. Interview with Lev Parnas.
Thanks William
How about the friggin' Russian ambassador. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/read-the-transcripts-of-michael-flynns-calls-with-russian-diplomat
Thanks Daniel
Doug: The polls got it wrong in 2015, 2020, 2022 pollsters and the corporate media feed themselves on conflict, competition, the horse race.
My hope is that, abortion which the media has buried, will raise it's head and wipe the slate clean of Republicans, but the Harris Campaign has to absolutely keep pounding that drum.
"The polls don't look good."
Simon sez National polling remains steady and encouraging for Harris. Here is what we’ve seen in recent days:
51%-45% (+6) Morning Consult (gained a point since last week)
49%-44% (+5) Susquehanna
50%-46% (+4) Big Village
49%-45% (+4) Research Co.
49%-46% (+4) NYT/Siena (4 pts with rounding/this is a 4 pt gain since the last poll)
49%-45% (+4) Economist/YouGov (gained a point since last week)
49%-46% (+3) TIPP/Issues and Insights (TIPP polls for rw groups)
49%-46% (+3) Data For Progress
50%-48% (+2) NPR/Marist
48%-46% (+2) Redfield & Wilton
47%-45% (+2) Reuters/Ipsos
48%-47% (+1) Yahoo/YouGov
Some of the major national polls this week showed Harris gaining ground. She gained 4 points in the New York Times poll. In the two weekly tracks I follow closely, Morning Consult and Economist/YouGov, she gained a point since last week. To be clear - in these three highly credible polls Harris has her biggest leads of the election.
IMHO none of the polls consider that Trump underperformed in his own primaries. Also don't consider the "new" registrations.
The Bulwark has a report about a promising new poll of Haley voters:
A SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF SELF-IDENTIFIED Nikki Haley voters say they will support Kamala Harris for president, according to a new survey shared exclusively with The Bulwark.
If the election were held today, Donald Trump would win just 45 percent of those who backed Haley in the GOP primary while 36 percent said they’d back Harris, the new poll shows, according to the survey of 781 registered Republicans and independents conducted by the new Democratic-leaning polling outfit Blueprint. The poll did not include Democrats or Democrat-leaning Independents who supported Haley.
What is disheartening Daniel is that the polling is split so closely
Considering the lies, the crime, the misogyny, the grift and theft by Trump, there is no way that they should be that close.
I can only account for the fact that
Trump reflects the mentality, attitude and values of 47-48% of America and if so then "god help us"
That the pollsters and the media are lying and have their thumb on the scale., if that is, then "god help us"
IMHO it's all bullshit.
I used to have to 1. qualify experts. and 2. submit them to cross examination before 3. obtain an educated OPINION. A judge or jury makes the ultimate decision.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daubert_standard#:~:text=In%20United%20States%20federal%20law,unqualified%20evidence%20to%20the%20jury.
E.G. Computer scientists, mathematicians, statisticians testified in my "big box" cases where qualified experts would take opposing positions re i.e. what is a valid statistical sample or what factors constitute "reliable" subjects.
I keep askin' how do they reconcile the fact that Trump underperformed in the primaries? This goes to reliability.
How do they handle the "new" registrations.
The burden of proof should be on the pollster. They all look invalid to me.
I've written about this previously. Watch but don't bet. I also don't trust bookies.
The worst aspect is that polls are not "news" per se. The question with expert testimony is 'based on your education and experience and based on the facts please render your OPINION to a "reasonable degree of probability."'
9 times out of 10 the judge or jury has to reconcile opposing opinions.
Pollsters purposefully ask the worng questions.
For instance : Are you satisified with Biden's performance.
Ask me that and I will say no.
Ask me who I would vote for and I will say the Democrats.
Polls are largely meaningless without knowing the exact wording of the question.
That aside, have you ever been polled? I haven't*, and I'm old AF.
*Political poll. I had an Arbitron radio diary in the mid-80s but I'm not counting that.
Nope Steve, I'm old AF also. I don't have a cell phone and have caller ID on my landline. If I don't recognize the caller I don't answer, If it is important it goes to the answering machine.
Mr. Solomon, I participated in research teams that designed surveys in Iowa and Michigan. You are correct to be somewhat skeptical about survey outcomes. Not because the designers are scoundrels, purposely biassing the study. But because, like any other complicated enterprise, surveys cost money and require expertise. If the money is short, the designers cut corners. Even if the expertise is there, errors can occur because of the nature of inferential statistics. One must not ignore that word "inferential." Inferences are made based on past experience and probability.
Many people critique the wording of the questions in surveys. This is legitimate criticism. But it is not foundational. A more important critique of a survey requires an examination of how the sample is constructed. It must follow the accepted rules for "stratified, random samples." Exactly how samples are stratified and randomized is a topic requiring a thick textbook. I cannot explain how this is done here. The explanation requires an entire course in sampling at the graduate level. The first really useful book to take on the subject was written by Rensis Likert at the university of Michigan. I recall that it was not easy to follow, and required that the student had a sound background in both inferential statistics and the social sciences. Likert is remembered for the many books he wrote about management and foremost, for his famous "Likert Scale" which is used in research around the world. But in my opinion, it was his writing about proper sample design which is perhaps most important.
If one searches for a copy of the books of Rensis Likert one finds many on Management, but his text on sampling is like gold, and difficult to find. In the many moves I have made since I worked on survey research, I have unfortunately lost my copy.
For those who wish to look into this subject in some detail I suggest using the words "stratified random sampling" as your guide. Likert was a social psychologist, so a background in both the social sciences and inferential statistics is essential. There are other books besides Likert's out there as well.
An expert is someone who comes from more than 50 miles away and who you pay to justify your position.
Jill appears to suffer from acute self-puffery as well as neurotic vainglory.
And rubbing shoulders with Putin?
What is she? . . . Some kind of pinko? A commie rat, not unlike Drumpf?
She needs to crawl back under her rock, where nothing is Green — Just dirty.
Sir Okie Doke, I met Dr. Jill Stein only once, years ago in a conference at Columbia U. She struck me as serious, sincere, intelligent as hell, and she was open to criticism. I criticized her ideas to her face in a seminar. My question to her can be boiled down to something like; even if you succeed in making your point to the Democratic Party, what makes you think they will heed your effort? She responded in a reasonable fashion, even though I was in agreement with those who believed she was a spoiler. She encouraged me to enter politics and make my ideas public even though we disagreed.
She was not "Some kind of pinko?" or "A commie rat" and she was in the political arena long before anyone outside of New York had heard of the loathsome Trump or cared about Putin.
Maybe Jill Jill's just a godawful, useful idiot, in that case. Useful for trying to sink the American ship of state.
She could even be Trump's smarter, if 100% oblivious, doppelgänger.
If she is such, she's in fact a closeted pinko. And a commie. She just doesn't know it, yet.
Mostly she's an accidental, willfully blind, saboteur..
Jill Stein, Tulsi Gabbard, RFK Jr are self aggrandizers, hitching their wagon to what they perceive as the winner like most others including the Flynn brothers, which causes me to criticize Joe for not only keeping Gen Charles Flynn, but promoting him to full general and assigning me as commander Pacific Forces. This traitor sat at the desk of the Acting Sectary of Defense on Jan 6th and let the phone ring off the hook.And Biden not only keeps him, but promotes him twice.
Leftist supporters, like Chris Hedges, Amy Goodman and Noam Chomsky are Putin allies, old guard Marxists, 21st Century version of Tankie's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tankie#:~:text=Tankie%20is%20a%20pejorative%20label,such%20regimes%20or%20their%20allies.
I didn' say that there was anything Marxist about Putin or Russia
But among the old guard Marxists, there is an affection for Russia. They see Russia as a victim of American imperialism and capitalism.
Just as you have done, when you claim that the only empire is the American one.
Putin is an aggressive Imperialist, and you have to be wilfully blind or a Putinist not to see it.
America was Imperialist, but those days are over. Granted corporations use governments to advance and protect their interests by those corporations are global, and have no nationality. Their loyalty is to themselves, their survival and their investors, and that includes the state corporations like those in Russia run by oligarchs.
No, you are definitely wrong. Russia is imperialist, first Ukraine, then Lithuania, then the Baltic states, Moldova, the Balkans, if that isn't imperialism then there is no such thing.
You don't even know what Marx was all about.
Marx was a proto libertarian. A free trader, who thought that gold was the standard of value. Marx had nothing but disdain for the lower class, the laborers. In his time there was no such concept or words as upper class, middle class, lower class, He virtually coined the words bourgeoisie and proletariat.
His screed, had no mention at all of the ruling class, for a reason, because it was the ruling class of financiers,that financed him as The League of Just Men.
The USSR claiming to be Marxist, adopted his gold as a standard of value, and pegged a ruble as .9871 grams fine gold and issued only as many rubles as there was gold, and thus vigilantly guarded their gold stores.
It was a capital crime to smuggle rubles out of Russia, Because a foreigner could present rubles at the NordBank in Paris and demand gold, which then reduced the money supply. And that is why Russia was in a perpetual state of depression, not enough rubles to fulfill consumer demand.
Setting that aside Allen. I never said that Russia was Marxist. Go back and re read my original post
I did say this: Leftist supporters, like Chris Hedges, Amy Goodman and Noam Chomsky are Putin allies, old guard Marxists, 21st Century version of Tankie's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tankie#:~:text=Tankie%20is%20a%20pejorative%20label,such%20regimes%20or%20their%20allies.
They are indeed old guard Marxists, but I was not saying that Russia was Marxist. If you read the link about Tankie's,you might get the drift.
Tankies were old guard Marxists, who has an affection for Russia, as is obvious that this is an affection shared by Noam Chomsky, Amy Goodman, Karen Van derhuevel and her husband, Chris Hedges and others. They can't see Russia for what its, because their eyes are glazed over.
And your hero Jill Stein is a piece of shit, an ally and facilitator of the genocidist Putin.
Putin? He's a mob boss.
Russia? A gas station with nuclear arms.
Have you asked Trump if he is a commie, or a pinko?
There is nothing democratic about the electoral college, either, pal.
We use these types of misnomers to besmirch. That said, where do you get the temerity to chide 330,000,000 Americans? Who the heck are you, Allen, if that, indeed, is YOUR real name?
Take a toke.
Sir okie dokie calling Putin a communist would be a compliment. You too just misunderstood each other! Putin and XI are capitalists that the Republican party has put into place since the 1980s in my humble opinion.
That is what I interpreted from your writing also. Putin and XI... Are not communist, they are capitalists fascists who love dictatorships.
You may hereby chide as you will, Hingie.
However, just like a gerbil in a squeaky hamster-wheel, I must hereby reduce your Ukrainian-based palaver to "Perma-Dismissed" status due to a surfeit of noise.
Ironic that she is trying to convince Muslims to teach Democrats a lesson and to help Trump become President again. Trump said he would give Netanyahoo the go-ahead to level Gaza. Music to the ears of his son in-law Jared, who sees Gaza as appealing waterfront property.
The only patriotic thing for Stein to do is remove her name from the ballot and morph her candidacy into a fight for truly representational government. Her ego- flexing muscle just to show that she can put Trump back into office- is counterproductive and dangerous. But there's a bigger question for the rest of us. We know the two party system, the electoral college, the way the Supreme Court is confirmed, is failing us. Given the way the court has bastardized the First Amendment, we may need to modify it. Are we willing to do the long work and pursue the necessary constitutional amendments, with all the legal and political uncertainty that will bring?
Its hard to believe that Muslims would act to let into the White House again a depraved grifter like Trump, who advocates Muslim bans, mass deportations, getting rid of "bad genes", and ending the Middle east conflict fast by nuking or bombing Iran, Gaza, Lebanon turning them into beach front property. Can't the Democrats deal with the Muslim populations through mediators like Tlaib and others to promise a seat at the table when this election is won by Kamala and Walz - live to fight another day. For a two-state solution. There will be no "other day" if Trump wins.
Jack, people all of the time act contrary to their own best interests. They cut off their nose to spite their face. In the case of Muslims and others, they delude themselves into believing that the Democrats will learn their lesson after being punished, and fall in line and kow tow to them, only there won't be a next time. If Trump wins, the 2028 election if any, will be a Orban-Putan style sham. And the Muslims can rejoice that they taught the Democrats a lesson, as Trump rounds them up and puts them in concentration camps, awaiting deportation.
Bu they will never accept personal responsibility. Ayman Moheyldin of MSNBC abdicated responsiblity, months ago when he said that if Trump wins it is the Democrats fault for supporting Israel.,ignoring the fact that Muslim not voting will elect Trump and Trump is no friend of Muslims and is the BFF of Bibi.
Can anyone be more stupid.
William: It's depressing that you can never see any side but your own, exclusively. Both Harris and Biden are eager supporters of genocide. True, they aren't alone. How many leaders can be accused of this? Hitler? The Hutu leader? Stalin had other reasons. I'm sure you can supply a few more but there aren't many who have so enthusiastically supplied all of the weapons and support for a genocide, especially recently. How can you just ignore and excuse this? Jill Stein never supported any genocide! So what if she once had a dinner with Putin? There's nothing unethical about that. She had no gifts to promise him, unlike Trump. If you stopped your whining about spoilers and voted en masse for Stein, she would be the leading candidate instead of a dark horse for your preferred murderers. You don't have to agree with me (and few of you will) but why can't you step back and see the political tapestry for a change instead of just hammering everyone else with your little prejudices?
Let's talk about Genocide. Oct 7th was the opening shot, the latest one,on a genocide of Jews See the preamble to the HAMAS covenant and Para 7, Art 7 of same, which by the way is a verbatim extract from sacred Islamic scripture, verse 1295/1296, Book 56, hadith 139 al Bukhari.. That is genocide, You see according to Art II, the UN Covenant on the Prevention of Genocide, to declare genocide, requires intention, and Islam, especially HAMAS has declared intention.
I had to get that out of the way before I expressed my opinion of you and your bullshit. And that is take your opinion and shove it up your ass, because I don't give a hit.
Jill Stein is virtually sucking the cock of a mass murderin, imperialistic, genocider. Your buddy Putin.
From Jack Kaplan: The tactical point here is that now is precisely the time for Tlaib in Michigan to ask for a role, representing the 100,000+ voting uncommitted in the Michigan primary, in shaping the next administration's policy toward the Middle East conflicts and their resolutions. The preference is to have those 100,000 support Kamala-Walz and this would be the most opportune moment. I assume they would be advocating for a two-state solution. Perhaps it would quiet some of the more extreme voices that are pro-Hamas and pro-terrorist, bordering on advocating the destruction of Israel and out-and out antisemitism. Perhaps this has happened already. I noticed Tlaib sent out an email asking for funds for her campaign, and support for the Democratic ticket in Michigan. I would like to see a regional peace conference, locking everyone in the room until its settled - like some union/corporate labor negotiations. Perhaps Israel, and even Netanyahu might give assent as their credit rating and economy goes into the tank. Biden did seem to get the ILWU workers strike paused until January, after the election, with a 65% wage increase. Perhaps they could bring in the help of some concerned AIPAC billionaires to move the needle on Israel's side toward a negotiation. One can only hope, which while it springs eternal, is much better than a full-blown war.
I have always believed Stein worked on behalf of Putin. I don't think it's ego; I think there is more going on, but I have no evidence.
Frightening. Thom. Do you think it is over? Can Kamala still win? I toss and turn at night about this. I know "despair is not an option", but that is where I am.
I’m trying to resist despair, too — It’s what the opposition wants for us to feal — but it’s tough.
I did turn in my ballot, though. I live in Vermont, so I figure it won’t change the tally of Electoral votes, but I did vote!!!!
I also live in Vermont.
Pennsylvania is Pittsburgh in the west Phillie in the East and Kentucky in between or Pennsyltucky
I live in Washington and if it weren't for the I-5 Corridor, Snohomish and King County, we would be Alabama. South of King County and east of the Casacade Mountains is Alabama.Oregon is in the same situation, the NW of the State is blue, the rest is red, here is a map of all of the blue districts/counties in the US https://www.sightline.org/2022/02/15/our-maps-shouldnt-lie-about-our-votes/
We suffer the tyranny of the majority-minority, rural America..
The simplistic and false answer that rural America is neglected and deprecated, The real reason is because they are culturally endogenous and incestuous, ignorance and bigotry is taught and reinforced by church, grange, VFW, American Legion, press and pulpit.
That should be obvious, because as you get into the larger cities, where there is exposure to other cultures and ideas, you move into Democratic areas.
True. Although here in VT it is very rural and we go deep blue.
Do something (else).
https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/?org_ids=1255
Nothing listed for anywhere remotely close to here.
Have done a lot but I cannot travel to PA or other battleground states rigjt now to knock on doors.
Gotta computer? Text, phone bank, postcard......donate'
I have been donating weekly to both presidential and congressional campaigns.
Your nose for corruption must be pretty good, Thom, after so many years of observing and talking to the politicians.
Dr. Stein has talked about leaving the Dems over campaign finance reform and then criticized the Wall Street connections of both parties. So it would seem that she wants us to think it is all about the influence of money on politics.
In the meantime, Jill the investor has made a killing with her portfolio. Seems her focus there isn't always so GREEN.
Being a doctor has not enabled her to see that Trump and Putin are psychopaths? Maybe all she wants to see is how money benefits her. Putin has stolen billions of the Russian people's money and he can pay top dollar. Just sayin'!
Alis: What makes you so especially brilliant? So Stein wants us to think about the influence of money on politics? You mean you don't? Is it time for you to find a larger seashell to live in?
So she made some money? Are you jealous or what? Do you resent her because she's not homeless? I never heard that she is a billionaire. Just not impecunious. Big deal!
I'm sure she knows as much about the psychological malefactions of Trump and Putin as you do. So what? Once again, is knowing this what makes YOU so brilliant? Jill Stein has never supported a genocide (so far as I can know). Harris and Biden do, enthusiastically. But is this a fact of no importance to you? How do you distinguish so facilely among bad guys? I'm just confused how it can be so simple for you.
I think Thom explained the big deal part.
Dr. Stein definitely made us think about the influence of money on politics, just not in a good way. Jill has been quoted on those investments. She was on the same page as you regarding them.
Good for you for defending her. She is not my kind of leader, and apparently she isn't Thom's either. He's smart enough for both of us.
I was listening today to (brilliant) Ralph Nader. I remember that when he was running, all the conventional Dems trotted out that invidious word "spoiler" even for him. I don't think he has any of the baggage (?) of Stein and yet it never occurred to those smart consultant and analytic types that here was a candidate par excellence. That all they had to do was mount a campaign for him and they could actually have a president who, for the first time, was not an arrogant SOB psychopath. So I'm not impressed by the imaginary defects of Stein. Those are not important in reality. What is important is maintaining the pipeline to the billionaires, which is done through the two major parties. Follow the money.
I hope Arab-Americans and Green Party environmentalists who are dissatisfied with some of Biden's policies and vote Green or stay home in protest enjoy the second tRump administration. I know I won't. GOTV and let's elect Harris.
Trump won’t be kind to Muslims. They need to accept the fact that there never are clear choices in governance. Weigh all the pros and cons and then decide.
Chris: You're probably right. Trump dislikes almost everyone. But at least he isn't committing genocide against a Muslim population AS WE SPEAK! The devil you know, is more appealing than the one you don't.
This is SO on the money. Thom Hartmann. I posted a link t this essay on Bill Astore’s Sustack thread [hoping some will read it]— there they think we can actually SURVIVE “teaching Democrats” another lesson, and they preset Stein as the only choice with integrity. Gad.
I know the hope of influencing and changing our country’s attitudes - and working to bring the Democratic Party back to a more truly democratic {and less in the pocket of big money} ethic is going to be HARD. But it’s what we have to work with — if the Federalist-Society-Heritage-Society-Project-2025 Gang takes over with Trump in tow, we may have Oligarchy and fascism for generations.
Thanks for your clarity, and the benefit of your experience, Mr. Hartmann.
Pat: We have already had Oligarchy and a kinder and gentler fascism for generations and will for generations more if the Dems have their way. Don't you think the Dems cuddle up to business for their money and influence? I've always thought that is the principal part of the definition of fascism. Do the Dem representatives give a damn what their (poor people) constituents want them to do.? Not that I've seen. Not until the people are willing to shed their blood and lose their lives for change (civil rights changes; women's choice). Are ordinary Americans in favor of genocide? I don't think so. We should not have to suffer and die, just to get a representative to vote for decency. Good luck working with Dems to "change their attitudes" while the rich are paying for attitude change every day against you.
You see, I think that is hyperbole and “both sides”-ism, and NOT recognizing the realities of the past few Republican administrations vis-a-vis the Dems.
I do NOT think Democrats are excellent — or even innocent of some very bad behavior in the world. But they’re not what the R’s have been.
You think they are “as bad” or even worse? {Gad, certainly not WORSE …!} Well, I think you’re way off in your thinking, and at the risk of irritating someone, I suggest you carry water for the autocrats around the world. And you enable them at the risk of our whole government and future democracy, Sure we have WEALTHY and influential Democrats, too, but that does not NECESSARILY equate with Oligarchs … The Democrats are NOT proposing that we usher in suspension of the Constitution, enabling of an above-the-law autocratic president, amplified destruction of the environment, and damned near permanent corruption of the power of the vote and the rule of law.
I think your seeing Dems as the equal threat compared to R’s is …. Well, gobsmacking. And ludicrous.
That’s what I think.
Since we have convinced ourselves that we are the world’s best democracy, it is hard to see the flaws in our system and the virtues of other systems. Like all forms of supremacy thinking—racial, gender, religious, etc.we only see our best traits and refuse to accept that there other equally valid systems from which we can learn.
America ranks 27th in the world in Upward mobility, and behind all of the "socialist countries"
The United States ranks poorly in healthcare compared to other countries in many areas, including:
Health outcomes
The U.S. has high rates of preventable deaths, and life expectancy is more than four years below the average of 10 other countries. The U.S. also has high rates of maternal mortality, and women in the U.S. have the highest rate of maternal mortality related to pregnancy and childbirth complications
The U.S ranks 36th in literacy globally
The U.S. has the highest incarceration rate in the world, with 716 people per 100,000 of the population.
The U.S. has the highest rate of firearm homicides among high-income countries with populations over 10 million.
Great piece this morning ☕ Thom.As you've been saying for years now, Third Party politics hurt's the front runner, and Jill Stein is not only trying to do just that, but has been in Putin's pocket for years(there's photos to prove it). Will see you tomorrow on FSTV, until then,a Big Shout out for "Jefferson Smith" and his Father too! 💯👍 Will reStack ASAP 💙🌊
Here is photographic proof Kare nScofield https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/guess-who-came-dinner-flynn-putin-n742696
Big effing smear! Do you also have a picture of Stein passing notes with state secrets (or her secret recipe for varnishkas) to Putin. Or maybe you think she's eating his shit with mayonnaise. Eating dinner is just so traitorous isn't it?
Ah, has your balloon been punctured. Your saint has been taken down off her pedestal. Notice who is at dinner with her, especially that traitor Mike Flynn,.
You are known by the company you keep.
This isn't just ego. This is someone who has been paid off by Russia to create chaos in our elections.
Stein is just a garden variety opportunist.
Systematic: I thought we all had a right to run for office. But not according to you. If we have the temerity to oppose someone or something else, we are creating chaos.