Thom — I know that you prefer not to mention this but we are at the point of needing a new country.
The comparisons to Hungary and Russia are only partially valid. In contrast to Poland, Hungary never fully shook off the Soviet model. Orban is a continuation of the trend but the country is within the EU and eventually will need to bend to…
Thom — I know that you prefer not to mention this but we are at the point of needing a new country.
The comparisons to Hungary and Russia are only partially valid. In contrast to Poland, Hungary never fully shook off the Soviet model. Orban is a continuation of the trend but the country is within the EU and eventually will need to bend to the stronger powers in the EU. The energy crisis the country faces now may be the event that starts Orban’s demise. The Chekists in Russia took over the government with Andropov in 1982 as they realized that the economy was on the verge of collapse—something we could plainly see when we visited in the early 1980s. The Chekists began with Lenin, persisted and are still there and will be there post Putin.
I would look more to how Estonia handled its transition out of being a SSR and far more subjugated position to the USSR than Hungary. The USSR was essentially an oligarchy. It is the kind of determination and spirit of the Estonians that will be needed to start and ignite a movement for something better. It is already somewhat happening with the Blue States now. We are much farther down the path in many Blue States than Estonia was in 1991.
At some point people are going to wake up and decide that they want the autonomy to do better, either with devolved governance or independence, and break away from the oligarchy. It if happens it will not be easy, especially because the effort must be sustained over time against severe blow back from the entrenched interests. The coming slump in tech futures with the inevitable technology “Valley of Despair” with AI and electrification may provide an opening. Big tech is out over its skis with these technologies so a crash is all but certain. One should not forget that the 1929 Crash had roots in electric utility holding companies and over-extended automobile companies. Fast forward and it could be AI, crypto, and electric autos. We will see.
Thom — I know that you prefer not to mention this but we are at the point of needing a new country.
The comparisons to Hungary and Russia are only partially valid. In contrast to Poland, Hungary never fully shook off the Soviet model. Orban is a continuation of the trend but the country is within the EU and eventually will need to bend to the stronger powers in the EU. The energy crisis the country faces now may be the event that starts Orban’s demise. The Chekists in Russia took over the government with Andropov in 1982 as they realized that the economy was on the verge of collapse—something we could plainly see when we visited in the early 1980s. The Chekists began with Lenin, persisted and are still there and will be there post Putin.
I would look more to how Estonia handled its transition out of being a SSR and far more subjugated position to the USSR than Hungary. The USSR was essentially an oligarchy. It is the kind of determination and spirit of the Estonians that will be needed to start and ignite a movement for something better. It is already somewhat happening with the Blue States now. We are much farther down the path in many Blue States than Estonia was in 1991.
At some point people are going to wake up and decide that they want the autonomy to do better, either with devolved governance or independence, and break away from the oligarchy. It if happens it will not be easy, especially because the effort must be sustained over time against severe blow back from the entrenched interests. The coming slump in tech futures with the inevitable technology “Valley of Despair” with AI and electrification may provide an opening. Big tech is out over its skis with these technologies so a crash is all but certain. One should not forget that the 1929 Crash had roots in electric utility holding companies and over-extended automobile companies. Fast forward and it could be AI, crypto, and electric autos. We will see.
Brilliant…
Watch the shorts. Many knowledgable investors are contrarians.