Mr. Farrar, my thinking is based upon the work of Allan J Lichtman. He developed a predictive model in collaboration with Vladimir Keilis-Borok a world renown authority on the mathematics of prediction models while they were at The California Institute Of Technology. Lichtman is a Political Scientist, now I believe he is at American Univ.
Mr. Farrar, my thinking is based upon the work of Allan J Lichtman. He developed a predictive model in collaboration with Vladimir Keilis-Borok a world renown authority on the mathematics of prediction models while they were at The California Institute Of Technology. Lichtman is a Political Scientist, now I believe he is at American Univ.
Lichtman's model successfully predicted the out-come of every Presidential election from 1860 up to the present. The only time the model missed was when Gore was cheated out of the win by the Supreme Court. Gore actually won both the popular vote and the electoral college; which is what Lichtman's model predicted. That election is literally the only time such a thing has been done by the court. Lichtman's model works regardless of the political landscape. His model worked even when the electoral vote outcome did not match the popular vote outcome three times: in 1876, 1888, 2000.
Those televised debates are not predictive. The first one was Kennedy-Nixon. The only other notable public debate involving a president in our history was the one between Lincoln and Douglas. But that was a senate race, not presidential race.
My degrees are not in Political Science, but in Mathematics, Psychology, and Sociology. I don't think this affects my understanding of his work. I am elderly now and I have slowed down. But I can still follow Lichtman's reasoning.
I don't think that LIchtman's model takes into account, things like the Ummah, and it's loyalty to Islam before democracy, nor the tenuous hold that the forces of democracy have on the pulse of America in the states circling the Great Lakes, but we will see.
Mr. Farrar, my thinking is based upon the work of Allan J Lichtman. He developed a predictive model in collaboration with Vladimir Keilis-Borok a world renown authority on the mathematics of prediction models while they were at The California Institute Of Technology. Lichtman is a Political Scientist, now I believe he is at American Univ.
Lichtman's model successfully predicted the out-come of every Presidential election from 1860 up to the present. The only time the model missed was when Gore was cheated out of the win by the Supreme Court. Gore actually won both the popular vote and the electoral college; which is what Lichtman's model predicted. That election is literally the only time such a thing has been done by the court. Lichtman's model works regardless of the political landscape. His model worked even when the electoral vote outcome did not match the popular vote outcome three times: in 1876, 1888, 2000.
Those televised debates are not predictive. The first one was Kennedy-Nixon. The only other notable public debate involving a president in our history was the one between Lincoln and Douglas. But that was a senate race, not presidential race.
My degrees are not in Political Science, but in Mathematics, Psychology, and Sociology. I don't think this affects my understanding of his work. I am elderly now and I have slowed down. But I can still follow Lichtman's reasoning.
I don't think that LIchtman's model takes into account, things like the Ummah, and it's loyalty to Islam before democracy, nor the tenuous hold that the forces of democracy have on the pulse of America in the states circling the Great Lakes, but we will see.
Me, I haven't calmed down.