Mr. Hartmann, why don't we talk about how the uneducated boob Harry Truman lost the White House in 1948 to Thomas Dewey from New York? The answer: because the boob won the election in spite of the fact that all the polls had Dewey in the lead on election night. Students of American history are familiar with the photo of a smiling Truman …
Mr. Hartmann, why don't we talk about how the uneducated boob Harry Truman lost the White House in 1948 to Thomas Dewey from New York? The answer: because the boob won the election in spite of the fact that all the polls had Dewey in the lead on election night. Students of American history are familiar with the photo of a smiling Truman holding up a copy of the Chicago Tribune saying on the front page in a huge font "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN." In the photo the boob Truman has a big smile on his face.
Polls are a snapshot of the times, a limited snapshot. Even though pollsters do their best to adjust for bias in their sampling by using stratified/random sampling methods; the predictive value of polls is highly limited. As for the debates; they have never had predictive value.
History shows us voters return the incumbent to the White House if his administration has given the public good programs in the preceding four years. Truman had continued to support the great programs of FDR, so the public voted for Truman, even though he was a boob. Voters are much more affected by programs and policies and the conditions of the times than the commentariat realizes. They will vote for Biden in November.
Old Joe Biden has pushed through the biggest infrastructure bill since Eisenhower, the biggest environment bill in history. He forgave millions of dollars in student loans. He expanded eligibility for the ADA. He pulled us out of the Covid mess which trump had left us in. He did this with a divided Senate and a House controlled by Republicans. Is he senile or did he have a bad cold? I panicked at first upon viewing that debate. But after time to reflect on history, I have calmed down.
Gerald the political landscape in 1948 is not the same as in 2024, the comparison is not apt. The election is not about what Biden did, or his decency and honesty or humbleness.
As it now stands the election will be won and lost in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and Biden has lost those states, not that Trump has won them, but that Biden has lost them and the Muslim population, as well as Blacks in Detroit and Philadelphia will sit out the election or vote for Cornell West, and I haven't discussed the RFK and Jill Stein voters.
Mr. Farrar, my thinking is based upon the work of Allan J Lichtman. He developed a predictive model in collaboration with Vladimir Keilis-Borok a world renown authority on the mathematics of prediction models while they were at The California Institute Of Technology. Lichtman is a Political Scientist, now I believe he is at American Univ.
Lichtman's model successfully predicted the out-come of every Presidential election from 1860 up to the present. The only time the model missed was when Gore was cheated out of the win by the Supreme Court. Gore actually won both the popular vote and the electoral college; which is what Lichtman's model predicted. That election is literally the only time such a thing has been done by the court. Lichtman's model works regardless of the political landscape. His model worked even when the electoral vote outcome did not match the popular vote outcome three times: in 1876, 1888, 2000.
Those televised debates are not predictive. The first one was Kennedy-Nixon. The only other notable public debate involving a president in our history was the one between Lincoln and Douglas. But that was a senate race, not presidential race.
My degrees are not in Political Science, but in Mathematics, Psychology, and Sociology. I don't think this affects my understanding of his work. I am elderly now and I have slowed down. But I can still follow Lichtman's reasoning.
I don't think that LIchtman's model takes into account, things like the Ummah, and it's loyalty to Islam before democracy, nor the tenuous hold that the forces of democracy have on the pulse of America in the states circling the Great Lakes, but we will see.
Mr. Hartmann, why don't we talk about how the uneducated boob Harry Truman lost the White House in 1948 to Thomas Dewey from New York? The answer: because the boob won the election in spite of the fact that all the polls had Dewey in the lead on election night. Students of American history are familiar with the photo of a smiling Truman holding up a copy of the Chicago Tribune saying on the front page in a huge font "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN." In the photo the boob Truman has a big smile on his face.
Polls are a snapshot of the times, a limited snapshot. Even though pollsters do their best to adjust for bias in their sampling by using stratified/random sampling methods; the predictive value of polls is highly limited. As for the debates; they have never had predictive value.
History shows us voters return the incumbent to the White House if his administration has given the public good programs in the preceding four years. Truman had continued to support the great programs of FDR, so the public voted for Truman, even though he was a boob. Voters are much more affected by programs and policies and the conditions of the times than the commentariat realizes. They will vote for Biden in November.
Old Joe Biden has pushed through the biggest infrastructure bill since Eisenhower, the biggest environment bill in history. He forgave millions of dollars in student loans. He expanded eligibility for the ADA. He pulled us out of the Covid mess which trump had left us in. He did this with a divided Senate and a House controlled by Republicans. Is he senile or did he have a bad cold? I panicked at first upon viewing that debate. But after time to reflect on history, I have calmed down.
Gerald the political landscape in 1948 is not the same as in 2024, the comparison is not apt. The election is not about what Biden did, or his decency and honesty or humbleness.
As it now stands the election will be won and lost in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and Biden has lost those states, not that Trump has won them, but that Biden has lost them and the Muslim population, as well as Blacks in Detroit and Philadelphia will sit out the election or vote for Cornell West, and I haven't discussed the RFK and Jill Stein voters.
Mr. Farrar, my thinking is based upon the work of Allan J Lichtman. He developed a predictive model in collaboration with Vladimir Keilis-Borok a world renown authority on the mathematics of prediction models while they were at The California Institute Of Technology. Lichtman is a Political Scientist, now I believe he is at American Univ.
Lichtman's model successfully predicted the out-come of every Presidential election from 1860 up to the present. The only time the model missed was when Gore was cheated out of the win by the Supreme Court. Gore actually won both the popular vote and the electoral college; which is what Lichtman's model predicted. That election is literally the only time such a thing has been done by the court. Lichtman's model works regardless of the political landscape. His model worked even when the electoral vote outcome did not match the popular vote outcome three times: in 1876, 1888, 2000.
Those televised debates are not predictive. The first one was Kennedy-Nixon. The only other notable public debate involving a president in our history was the one between Lincoln and Douglas. But that was a senate race, not presidential race.
My degrees are not in Political Science, but in Mathematics, Psychology, and Sociology. I don't think this affects my understanding of his work. I am elderly now and I have slowed down. But I can still follow Lichtman's reasoning.
I don't think that LIchtman's model takes into account, things like the Ummah, and it's loyalty to Islam before democracy, nor the tenuous hold that the forces of democracy have on the pulse of America in the states circling the Great Lakes, but we will see.
Me, I haven't calmed down.